Every prediction we have made, graded in public.
How accurate is Onside?
On Fantasy Premier League, Onside’s v5 engine scores a mean absolute error of 0.86 points per player per gameweek across 51,518 out-of-sample predictions. At the 2026 World Cup, the model’s favourite advanced in 63 of 76 decisive ties (83%). Every pick was published before kick-off and graded afterwards, including the ones we got wrong — which are named further down this page.
The ones we got wrong
Every prediction site publishes a hit rate. Almost none publish the losses. Here are ours, in full. If a model is only ever right in hindsight, it was never a model.
Why no probability next to each miss? Because we never stored it before the match, and we will not reconstruct it after the fact. Any number we printed here would be recomputed today by a model that has already seen these results, which is not a receipt, it is a re-enactment. The pick and the outcome are recorded, so the record stands. The percentages do not. From the 26/27 season every prediction is written down before the deadline and never recalculated. We wrote up the bug in full.
Check it yourself
None of this is worth anything if you have to take our word for it. The predictions were published before each match, the data is free, and the calibration is open.
Common questions
How accurate is Onside?
On Fantasy Premier League, Onside's v5 engine scores a mean absolute error of 0.86 points per player per gameweek across 51,518 out-of-sample predictions. On the World Cup 2026 knockouts, the model's favourite advanced in 63 of 76 decisive ties (83%). Both records are published in full, including the misses.
Does Onside publish its wrong predictions?
Yes. Our pick for every match was published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards, win or lose, and the misses are listed on this page by name. We are deliberately precise about what we do and do not claim: the pick and the outcome are recorded, so the hit rate is checkable. The pre-match probability was not stored, so we do not print one retrospectively rather than reconstruct it after the fact. From the 2026/27 season every prediction is written down before the deadline and never recalculated.
What does MAE mean for FPL predictions?
Mean absolute error is the average gap between the points we projected for a player and the points they actually scored. Lower is better. Onside v5 sits at 0.86, against 1.048 for a naive "recent form" baseline and 1.025 for our own previous engine. It is measured out-of-sample, meaning on gameweeks the model never trained on.
Can I download the prediction data?
Yes. Every World Cup 2026 prediction, fixture and champion-probability sample is free to download, cite and reuse under a permissive licence. The raw data is on the Open Data page.
How does Onside make its predictions?
A depth-2 gradient-boosted meta-stacker over 17 signals including expected goals, expected minutes, set-piece duty, defensive contribution and bookmaker odds. The calibration is public and refreshed weekly.
Data licensed CC BY 4.0. If you cite these figures, a link back to onsidearena.com is all we ask.