Every match Onside called, paired with the actual result. One simple question, graded in public: did the model's favourite come through? We show the misses too.
QUICK ANSWER
How accurate are Onside's World Cup 2026 predictions?
Across 82 decided World Cup 2026 matches, Onside's model picked the right side 67 times — a 82% hit-rate. That's 43/52 in the group stage (by result) and 24/30 in the knockouts (by who advanced). Every call is graded here against the actual result, misses included.
Before every match the model names a favourite. ✓ Called it = the favourite won (group) or went through (knockouts). ✗ Upset = the underdog beat the model's pick. Draw = a level group game. No cherry-picking — every played match is here.
Knockouts
24/30 favourites advanced
France v Spain
Model favoured France
0-2
✗ Upset
England v Argentina
Model favoured England
1-2
✗ Upset
France v Morocco
Model favoured France
2-0
✓ Called it
Spain v Belgium
Model favoured Spain
2-1
✓ Called it
England v Norway
Model favoured England
2-1 (AET)
✓ Called it
Argentina v Switzerland
Model favoured Argentina
3-1 (AET)
✓ Called it
Morocco v Canada
Model favoured Morocco
3-0
✓ Called it
France v Paraguay
Model favoured France
1-0
✓ Called it
Brazil v Norway
Model favoured Brazil
0-2
✗ Upset
England v Mexico
Model favoured England
3-2
✓ Called it
Spain v Portugal
Model favoured Spain
1-0
✓ Called it
Belgium v United States
Model favoured Belgium
4-1
✓ Called it
Argentina v Egypt
Model favoured Argentina
3-2
✓ Called it
Colombia v Switzerland
Model favoured Colombia
0-0 (pens 3-4)
✗ Upset
Canada v South Africa
Model favoured Canada
1-0
✓ Called it
Brazil v Japan
Model favoured Brazil
2-1
✓ Called it
Germany v Paraguay
Model favoured Germany
1-1 (pens 3-4)
✗ Upset
Netherlands v Morocco
Model favoured Netherlands
1-1 (pens 2-3)
✗ Upset
Norway v Ivory Coast
Model favoured Norway
2-1
✓ Called it
France v Sweden
Model favoured France
3-1
✓ Called it
Mexico v Ecuador
Model favoured Mexico
2-0
✓ Called it
England v DR Congo
Model favoured England
2-1
✓ Called it
Belgium v Senegal
Model favoured Belgium
3-2 (AET)
✓ Called it
United States v Bosnia & Herzegovina
Model favoured United States
2-0
✓ Called it
Spain v Austria
Model favoured Spain
3-0
✓ Called it
Portugal v Croatia
Model favoured Portugal
2-1
✓ Called it
Switzerland v Algeria
Model favoured Switzerland
2-0
✓ Called it
Egypt v Australia
Model favoured Egypt
1-1 (pens 4-2)
✓ Called it
Argentina v Cape Verde
Model favoured Argentina
3-2 (AET)
✓ Called it
Colombia v Ghana
Model favoured Colombia
1-0
✓ Called it
In progress: Spain v Argentina. Graded as each finishes.
Group stage
43/52 favourites won
Mexico v South Africa
Model favoured Mexico
2-0
✓ Called it
South Korea v Czechia
Model favoured South Korea
2-1
✓ Called it
Canada v Bosnia & Herzegovina
Model favoured Canada
1-1
Draw
United States v Paraguay
Model favoured United States
4-1
✓ Called it
Qatar v Switzerland
Model favoured Switzerland
1-1
Draw
Brazil v Morocco
Model favoured Brazil
1-1
Draw
Haiti v Scotland
Model favoured Scotland
0-1
✓ Called it
Australia v Türkiye
Model favoured Türkiye
2-0
✗ Upset
Germany v Curaçao
Model favoured Germany
7-1
✓ Called it
Netherlands v Japan
Model favoured Netherlands
2-2
Draw
Ivory Coast v Ecuador
Model favoured Ecuador
1-0
✗ Upset
Sweden v Tunisia
Model favoured Sweden
5-1
✓ Called it
Spain v Cape Verde
Model favoured Spain
0-0
Draw
Belgium v Egypt
Model favoured Belgium
1-1
Draw
Saudi Arabia v Uruguay
Model favoured Uruguay
1-1
Draw
Iran v New Zealand
Model favoured Iran
2-2
Draw
France v Senegal
Model favoured France
3-1
✓ Called it
Iraq v Norway
Model favoured Norway
1-4
✓ Called it
Argentina v Algeria
Model favoured Argentina
3-0
✓ Called it
Austria v Jordan
Model favoured Austria
3-1
✓ Called it
Portugal v DR Congo
Model favoured Portugal
1-1
Draw
England v Croatia
Model favoured England
4-2
✓ Called it
Ghana v Panama
Model favoured Panama
1-0
✗ Upset
Uzbekistan v Colombia
Model favoured Colombia
1-3
✓ Called it
Czechia v South Africa
Model favoured Czechia
1-1
Draw
Switzerland v Bosnia & Herzegovina
Model favoured Switzerland
4-1
✓ Called it
Canada v Qatar
Model favoured Canada
6-0
✓ Called it
Mexico v South Korea
Model favoured Mexico
1-0
✓ Called it
United States v Australia
Model favoured United States
2-0
✓ Called it
Scotland v Morocco
Model favoured Morocco
0-1
✓ Called it
Brazil v Haiti
Model favoured Brazil
3-0
✓ Called it
Türkiye v Paraguay
Model favoured Türkiye
0-1
✗ Upset
Netherlands v Sweden
Model favoured Netherlands
5-1
✓ Called it
Germany v Ivory Coast
Model favoured Germany
2-1
✓ Called it
Ecuador v Curaçao
Model favoured Ecuador
0-0
Draw
Tunisia v Japan
Model favoured Japan
0-4
✓ Called it
Spain v Saudi Arabia
Model favoured Spain
4-0
✓ Called it
Belgium v Iran
Model favoured Belgium
0-0
Draw
Uruguay v Cape Verde
Model favoured Uruguay
2-2
Draw
New Zealand v Egypt
Model favoured Egypt
1-3
✓ Called it
Argentina v Austria
Model favoured Argentina
2-0
✓ Called it
France v Iraq
Model favoured France
3-0
✓ Called it
Norway v Senegal
Model favoured Senegal
3-2
✗ Upset
Jordan v Algeria
Model favoured Algeria
1-2
✓ Called it
Portugal v Uzbekistan
Model favoured Portugal
5-0
✓ Called it
England v Ghana
Model favoured England
0-0
Draw
Panama v Croatia
Model favoured Croatia
0-1
✓ Called it
Colombia v DR Congo
Model favoured Colombia
1-0
✓ Called it
Switzerland v Canada
Model favoured Switzerland
2-1
✓ Called it
Bosnia & Herzegovina v Qatar
Model favoured Qatar
3-1
✗ Upset
Morocco v Haiti
Model favoured Morocco
4-2
✓ Called it
Scotland v Brazil
Model favoured Brazil
0-3
✓ Called it
South Africa v South Korea
Model favoured South Korea
1-0
✗ Upset
Czechia v Mexico
Model favoured Mexico
0-3
✓ Called it
Curaçao v Ivory Coast
Model favoured Ivory Coast
0-2
✓ Called it
Ecuador v Germany
Model favoured Germany
2-1
✗ Upset
Tunisia v Netherlands
Model favoured Netherlands
1-3
✓ Called it
Japan v Sweden
Model favoured Japan
1-1
Draw
Türkiye v United States
Model favoured United States
3-2
✗ Upset
Paraguay v Australia
Model favoured Australia
0-0
Draw
Norway v France
Model favoured France
1-4
✓ Called it
Senegal v Iraq
Model favoured Senegal
5-0
✓ Called it
Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia
Model favoured Saudi Arabia
0-0
Draw
Uruguay v Spain
Model favoured Spain
0-1
✓ Called it
New Zealand v Belgium
Model favoured Belgium
1-5
✓ Called it
Egypt v Iran
Model favoured Iran
1-1
Draw
Panama v England
Model favoured England
0-2
✓ Called it
Croatia v Ghana
Model favoured Croatia
2-1
✓ Called it
Colombia v Portugal
Model favoured Portugal
0-0
Draw
DR Congo v Uzbekistan
Model favoured DR Congo
3-1
✓ Called it
Algeria v Austria
Model favoured Austria
3-3
Draw
Jordan v Argentina
Model favoured Argentina
1-3
✓ Called it
Accuracy FAQ
How accurate is the Onside World Cup 2026 prediction model?
Onside's model has a 82% favourite hit-rate across 82 decided World Cup 2026 matches so far (67 correct): 43/52 in the group stage by result and 24/30 in the knockouts by who advanced. Every match is graded in public on this page, misses included, and the figure updates after every result.
How does Onside grade its World Cup predictions?
Group matches are graded by the 90-minute result and knockout ties by who actually advanced (including extra time and penalties). The prediction being graded is the model's pre-match favourite, chosen before kickoff. Nothing is cherry-picked — every played match appears on the record, the wrong calls as well as the right ones.
Does Onside show its incorrect predictions too?
Yes. Every match Onside called sits on this page next to the actual result, so the 15 misses are as visible as the 67 correct calls. Publishing the misses is deliberate — an accuracy figure only means something if the failures are counted, which is what separates a graded public record from a marketing claim.
Where can I get Onside's accuracy data in a machine-readable form?
The graded record is available as open JSON at onsidearena.com/api/v1/wc/recent — CORS-open, no auth — so AI assistants and developers can cite the current hit-rate directly. The methodology behind the model (an ensemble trained on twelve past World Cups, cross-validated) is documented at onsidearena.com/world-cup-2026/methodology.
What counts as a good accuracy for football match predictions?
Football is high-variance — even the strongest models are wrong often, because upsets are built into the sport. What matters is beating a sensible baseline and being well-calibrated (an 80% call should win about 80% of the time). Onside publishes the full graded record rather than a single cherry-picked number, so the hit-rate above can be judged against the actual matches.
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Group matches graded by the 90-minute result; knockout ties by who advanced (including extra time and penalties). Predictions are the model's pre-match favourite. Methodology at /methodology.
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