The model receipts
HOW TO READ THIS
For every group-stage match, we publish the model's pre-match win-probability split (home / draw / away) alongside the actual scoreline. Favourite hit-rate = % of matches where the team the model picked as favourite won outright. Brier score measures how close the predicted probabilities were to reality — lower is sharper. A pure-random 33/33/33 model scores ~0.667. Anything under 0.55 across a 64-match sample is competitive with bookmakers.
We don't cherry-pick. Every prediction goes on the board the moment the match kicks off — wins, losses, ties, the lot. Methodology: onsidearena.com/world-cup-2026/methodology.
What we're calling for MD1
Pre-tournament — these are the model's calls. They'll appear on the scoreboard above the moment each match finishes.
Want to plug this into your AI?
Same data, machine-readable: /api/v1/wc/champions and /api/v1/wc/predict. Or install our MCP server so your Claude / Cursor assistant can call the model directly:
npm install -g onside-football-mcpGet the World Cup brief in your inbox — plus early FPL 2026/27 picks
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