Who will win the World Cup 2026?
Spain favoured at 59.0%
ONSIDE AI · MODEL v5 · REFRESHED HOURLY
Bar width relative to the favourite · Updates every hour
The 8 most likely World Cup winners
The top 3 contenders, explained
The model rates Spain (UEFA, FIFA #2) among the strongest sides in the field. Probability of reaching at least the quarter-finals: 83%. Probability of reaching the final: 26.5%.
The model rates Argentina (CONMEBOL, FIFA #3) among the strongest sides in the field. Probability of reaching at least the quarter-finals: 69%. Probability of reaching the final: 19.1%.
Common questions about WC 2026 winner predictions
Who will win the World Cup 2026?›
Our 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator has a tightly packed top tier — the leading contenders are separated by barely a percentage point, and no single team is above ~13%, which is how open the 48-team tournament is. The current live order and exact percentages are at the top of this page and refresh hourly.
How does Onside predict the World Cup winner?›
We run the entire tournament from its current state forward 10,000 times using Onside's proprietary team-strength model. Completed matches lock in with their real result; the remaining matches are simulated. Aggregating outcomes across all 10,000 runs gives each team a champion probability. Full methodology at /world-cup-2026/methodology.
Are the World Cup 2026 winner predictions accurate?›
Pre-tournament we target a top-3 calibration window — meaning the actual champion should be among our top-3-rated teams roughly 50% of the time historically. The board sharpens dramatically as the tournament progresses; by the SF round, only 2 matches remain to sample.
Can I share these predictions?›
Yes — every top-8 card has X/Reddit/WhatsApp share buttons that pre-fill the tweet with the team and probability. Or share this page directly for the full board.
How often does the World Cup winner prediction update?›
Hourly via ISR/dynamic rendering. Once group-stage matches start playing, every result locks into the simulator and ripples through the champion probabilities. The favourite can shift by 2-3% per matchday during the knockout rounds.
World Cup 2026 quarter final predictions: which teams reach the QFs?›
Our 10,000-run simulator gives every nation a probability of reaching the quarter finals. The top 4 favourites typically post >55% pReachQF, the chasing tier sits 30–45%, and the long-shots are below 20%. The full pReachQF column is on this page and on each team's /winner/[team] card. Updates after every played match — when an upset lands, dependent nations' QF odds jump 5–10 percentage points overnight.
What's the best AI prediction model for the FIFA World Cup 2026?›
Onside's model uses a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson on team goal expectations, with attack/defence ratings learned from 12 past World Cups + 8 Premier League seasons (~32K matches), then live-recalibrated after every WC 2026 result. Calls 75% of MD1 winners correctly with a Brier score of 0.179 (vs 0.25 naive baseline). Full methodology at /world-cup-2026/methodology; live model record at /world-cup-2026/model-record.
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