Win probability for every WC 2026 match
Every group-stage fixture, modelled from FIFA rank, Premier League footprint, host advantage and confederation strength. Each bar shows the probability split between home win, draw and away win.
Three sections below: match predictions, model recommendations (upsets, top picks, fixture-by-fixture), and fantasy intel for FIFA WC Fantasy managers.
Source: Onside's opponent-rating model. Replaces with real engine output once pre-season ratings ship. All probabilities sum to 100%.
What the model says about Matchday 1
The five group-stage matches the model says could surprise
Underdog combined win-or-draw probability ≥ 38%. Either side could win or share — the favourite is far from comfortable.
Day-by-day probabilities
Filter by group, confederation or matchday — or search a team name to jump to its three group fixtures. Click any team name to open its full nation page.
Slice the 72 fixtures
Thursday 11 June
2026-06-11Friday 12 June
2026-06-12Saturday 13 June
2026-06-13Sunday 14 June
2026-06-14Monday 15 June
2026-06-15Tuesday 16 June
2026-06-16Wednesday 17 June
2026-06-17Thursday 18 June
2026-06-18Friday 19 June
2026-06-19Saturday 20 June
2026-06-20Sunday 21 June
2026-06-21Monday 22 June
2026-06-22Tuesday 23 June
2026-06-23Wednesday 24 June
2026-06-24Thursday 25 June
2026-06-25Friday 26 June
2026-06-26Saturday 27 June
2026-06-27Sunday 28 June
2026-06-28Onside World Cup 2026 predictions — common questions
Answers to the most-asked questions about the model. Schema-marked so Google can surface them as a rich result.
How accurate are the Onside World Cup 2026 predictions?›
Pre-tournament we target 60-70% favourite-correct on group fixtures, which matches historical favourite-win rates at recent World Cups. Once matches start playing, the in-page "Model accuracy" chip shows the live running score so you can verify the claim. The model is calibrated for the long run — variance on any single match is high.
Which team is predicted to win World Cup 2026?›
Per the latest run of our 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulator, France leads at roughly 12.6%, followed by Spain (11.7%), England (11.1%), and Argentina (9.3%). The board updates hourly as live results lock in. See /world-cup-2026/simulator for the full top-24 round-by-round breakdown.
What inputs does the prediction model use?›
Four signals: FIFA world ranking (the dominant input), Premier League squad footprint (tiebreaker only), host advantage for Mexico/USA/Canada, and confederation strength. Each match probability is the output of a logistic opponent-rating model. Full methodology at /world-cup-2026/methodology.
What is the biggest predicted upset at World Cup 2026?›
The model flags several group-stage matches with underdog-combined-win-or-draw probability above 55%, including Bosnia vs Qatar, DR Congo vs Uzbekistan, and Brazil vs Morocco. Full ranked list at /world-cup-2026/upsets.
How often do predictions update?›
Predictions refresh hourly via ISR caching. The model itself updates when a new FIFA ranking is published or when squad announcements change PL footprint counts. Once matches start playing, completed results lock in as priors and the simulator naturally sharpens.
Can I share or embed these predictions?›
Yes — every per-fixture page generates a 1200x630 Satori share card via the /opengraph-image route. Hit any matchup page on X and the preview is auto-included. For citations, link to onsidearena.com/world-cup-2026/methodology so readers can see how the figure was derived.
Use these predictions for your FIFA WC Fantasy team
Onside's probability model feeds directly into our matchday captain shortlist, differentials, and value board for the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy game. Picks include Mbappé, Vinicius, Messi, Modrić — not just Premier League names.
Inputs + assumptions
- · FIFA world ranking — the dominant signal. Lower rank = stronger.
- · Premier League footprint — count of PL-registered players (squad-fitness proxy).
- · Host advantage — binary, only for USA / Mexico / Canada.
- · Confederation strength — weighted by historical tournament performance (UEFA + CONMEBOL strongest).
- · Outcome via log-linear opponent-rating model. Draw probability anchors around the historical group-stage rate (~24% baseline).
Probabilities update once federation squads are finalised + pre-tournament rankings refresh. Replaced by Onside's match engine output as pre-season ratings ship.
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