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Who will win Switzerland vs Canada?

Onside's model gives Canada a 38% win probability (25% draw, Switzerland 37%). The model's projected scoreline is Switzerland 22 Canada. We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
Live model · updated moments ago · re-runs at kickoff67/82 calls right (82%) — see the record →
Analysis by the Onside model · ensemble ML, 0.86 MAEPublic track recordMethodologyUpdated 2026-07-19
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP B · MD3

Switzerland vs CanadaWin Probability & Model Prediction

Wednesday, 24 June 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Vancouver

Onside's AI model gives Switzerland 37%, draw 25%, and Canada 38%. This is coin-flip territory — the model can't separate the two sides.

SWITZERLAND WIN
37%
DRAW
25%
CANADA WIN
38%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.701.72
★ MODE
11
10.7%
12
8.2%
21
8.1%
22
7.0%
02
4.8%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
66%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
68%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Switzerland vs Canada World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Switzerland 37%, draw 25%, and Canada 38% — canada favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Switzerland vs Canada prediction score

Expected scoreline: 22 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Switzerland 2, Canada 2). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

Switzerland vs Canada head to head

Group B fixture at Vancouver, kickoff Wed 24 Jun, 19:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (SUI #19 vs CAN #30), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

Switzerland vs Canada line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED
NO CLEAR FAVOURITE
PRE-MATCH MODEL
SUI / D / CAN
FINAL SCORE
21

Model gave no clear favourite — coin-flip territory pre-match.

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MODEL RATIONALE

Coin-flip on paper

Switzerland (FIFA #19) and Canada (FIFA #30) sit too close to separate. Both win probabilities are within two points of each other, with the draw absorbing the middle 25%.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
Switzerland
#19
Canada
#30
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
Switzerland
5
Canada
0
HOME SOIL
Switzerland
Canada
YES
REGION
Switzerland
UEFA
Canada
CONCACAF
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The PL names in each squad

Switzerland5 PL
  • Manuel AkanjiMan City
  • Granit XhakaSunderland
  • Zeki AmdouniBurnley
  • Dan NdoyeNott'm Forest
  • Noah OkaforLeeds
Canada0 PL
No current Premier League names in this squad.
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