The final table,
before a ball is kicked.
Arsenal40.2%
Hull City44.7%
Coventry City63% stay upWho will win the Premier League 2026/27?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
The predicted 2026/27 Premier League table, all 20 clubs
| # | Club | xPts | 5–95% range | Title | Top 4 | Drop | Now | Pts | P | Pace vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ArsenalUCL | 84 | 58104 | 40.2% | 80.8% | — | 2 | 15 | 6 | Inside |
| 2 |  Manchester CityUCL | 74.7 | 4898 | 18.2% | 57.6% | 0.3% | 1 | 18 | 6 | Above range |
| 3 |  LiverpoolUCL | 71.7 | 4595 | 12.1% | 51.7% | 0.5% | 9 | 9 | 6 | Inside |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 67.1 | 4092 | 7.9% | 39.4% | 1.4% | 6 | 10 | 6 | Inside |
| 5 |  Manchester UnitedUCL | 66.1 | 3992 | 6.8% | 37.8% | 2% | 13 | 6 | 6 | Below range |
| 6 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 60.4 | 3287 | 3.7% | 26.3% | 3.8% | 19 | 3 | 6 | Below range |
| 7 |  Aston VillaUCL | 59.5 | 3186 | 3.2% | 24.5% | 4.6% | 16 | 5 | 6 | Inside |
| 8 |  BrightonUECL | 55.3 | 2982 | 1.6% | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3 | 13 | 6 | Above range |
| 9 |  Newcastle United | 55.2 | 2984 | 2.3% | 16.8% | 6.9% | 11 | 8 | 6 | Inside |
| 10 |  BournemouthUEL | 50.9 | 2578 | 1% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 18 | 3 | 6 | Below range |
| 11 |  Brentford | 50 | 2478 | 0.6% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 4 | 10 | 6 | Inside |
| 12 |  Everton | 47.4 | 2473 | 0.4% | 5.9% | 12.8% | 5 | 10 | 6 | Inside |
| 13 |  Fulham | 44.7 | 2072 | 0.5% | 5.1% | 19.6% | 20 | 2 | 6 | Below range |
| 14 |  Leeds United | 44.5 | 2071 | 0.3% | 4.7% | 19.6% | 7 | 9 | 6 | Inside |
| 15 |  Crystal PalaceUEL | 43.3 | 2071 | 0.8% | 4.7% | 21.6% | 12 | 7 | 6 | Inside |
| 16 |  SunderlandUEL | 39.9 | 1764 | 0.1% | 2.1% | 27.1% | 17 | 4 | 6 | Inside |
| 17 |  Nottingham Forest | 39.2 | 1765 | 0.1% | 1.9% | 29% | 15 | 5 | 6 | Inside |
| 18 | Coventry City | 36.3 | 1462 | 0.1% | 1.4% | 37% | 14 | 6 | 6 | Inside |
| 19 |  Ipswich Town | 35.3 | 1461 | — | 1.3% | 39.1% | 10 | 9 | 6 | Inside |
| 20 | Hull City | 33.8 | 1260 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 44.7% | 8 | 9 | 6 | Inside |
What's in the numbers
Maresca year one; Elliot Anderson completed from Forest for a €135m club record in deadline week.
Iraola in from Bournemouth; Ekitike arrives for £69m+10 — club-record striker.
Xabi Alonso plus the biggest spend in world football — Rogers, Lacroix, Palestra, Welbeck, Barco, Henderson.
Survived on the final day, then De Zerbi + £200m spent including Tonali (£100m).
Emery still there, but Konsa (£55m, Arsenal), Rogers, Tielemans and Digne all left in one window — four starters out of a Champions League squad.
Hürzeler, 8th two years running; Conference League adds midweeks.
Jaissle in for Howe; Hornicek signed in goal; Bruno Guimarães exit talk unresolved at the freeze.
Iraola to Liverpool, Marco Rose in; Semenyo, Kerkez and the first-choice keeper all sold. The deepest transition outside the promoted three.
Andrews; equalled their best-ever PL finish (9th).
Moyes continuity, 13th.
Farke, safe 14th in season one back.
Anderson sold for €135m, but Oliver Glasner arrived in July — FA Cup, Conference League and Community Shield at Palace.
Championship winners with 95 pts and 97 goals; Lampard extended to 2029 — best-backed of the trio alongside Ipswich.
84-pt runners-up with the best defence of the trio, but McKenna left; Gary O'Neil in.
Team strengths start from three seasons of expected-goals data with time decay, adjusted for the summer's transfers, managerial changes, European load and promoted-club quality. Each simulated season draws correlated team-strength noise, so a club that breaks good or bad is good or bad all season — that is why the promoted clubs survive in a genuine share of simulations rather than being rubber-stamped down. We publish the numbers and let the season grade them. Every match that feeds this table is called at /predictions and graded in public at /model-record. Full write-up: /methodology. Free to cite with a link (CC BY 4.0). Forecast locked 21 August 2026 and never regenerated since — that is the point of it.
How the frozen table is holding up
Checked against every Premier League result to 12 October 2026 — 60 matches, into Gameweek 6. 14 of 20 clubs are on course to finish inside the 5–95% points range published above, if they carry on at their current rate. The model's August favourite was Arsenal; Manchester City currently lead.
That is a pace check, not a verdict: the published range is a range on FINAL points, so current points are extended to 38 games at each club's current rate to compare at all. Early in a season that swings hard on one result. The projection itself is untouched — it was locked before a ball was kicked and it stays locked. Every match behind it is graded in public at /model-record.
Will this table hold up? We grade it in public.
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