The final table,
before a ball is kicked.
Arsenal40.2%
Hull City44.7%
Coventry City63% stay upWho will win the Premier League 2026/27?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
All 20, position by position
Manchester UnitedUCL66.139926.8%37.8%2%What's in the numbers
Champions, 6/4 and FIRMING even with Saliba out to October — Hincapié, Meslier and now Konsa (£55m) arrived to cover, plus Tzolis width. The market's clear pick.
Maresca year one; Elliot Anderson completed from Forest for a €135m club record in deadline week.
Iraola in from Bournemouth; Ekitike arrives for £69m+10 — club-record striker. Market holds them 3rd at 5/1.
Xabi Alonso plus the biggest spend in world football — Rogers, Lacroix, Palestra, Welbeck, Barco, Henderson. Market moved them to ~11% title, level with United and closing on Liverpool.
Carrick made permanent after the 3rd-place surge; market support up — +600 title, best price since 2021.
Survived on the final day, then De Zerbi + £200m spent including Tonali (£100m).
Emery still there, but Konsa (£55m, Arsenal), Rogers, Tielemans and Digne all left in one window — four starters out of a Champions League squad.
Hürzeler, 8th two years running; Conference League adds midweeks.
Jaissle in for Howe; Hornicek signed in goal; Bruno Guimarães exit talk unresolved at the freeze.
Iraola to Liverpool, Marco Rose in; Semenyo, Kerkez and the first-choice keeper all sold. The deepest transition outside the promoted three.
Andrews; equalled their best-ever PL finish (9th).
Moyes continuity, 13th.
Gonzalo García arrives from Real Madrid for ~€40m, yet the market shortened them to 11/2 for the drop — squad depth doubts price louder than one striker.
Farke, safe 14th in season one back.
Won the Conference League, then lost Glasner to Forest; Sage in — upheaval priced.
7th + Europa League last season, yet 3/1 relegation — the shortest-priced established side. Market flags the double load.
Anderson sold for €135m, but Oliver Glasner arrived in July — FA Cup, Conference League and Community Shield at Palace. The market never priced Forest into the relegation shortlist; neither do we.
Championship winners with 95 pts and 97 goals; Lampard extended to 2029 — best-backed of the trio alongside Ipswich.
84-pt runners-up with the best defence of the trio, but McKenna left; Gary O'Neil in.
Promoted via the play-offs off the weakest underlying record (73 pts, +4 GD); 80% relegation-implied — the market's clearest call.
Team strengths start from three seasons of expected-goals data with time decay, then get calibrated so full-season simulations agree with July's season betting markets — the cleanest available price on transfers, managerial changes, European load and promoted-club quality. Each simulated season draws correlated team-strength noise, so a club that breaks good or bad is good or bad all season — that is why the promoted clubs survive in a genuine share of simulations rather than being rubber-stamped down. One honest divergence: our title number for the favourite runs above the betting market's, because title books carry longshot bias; we publish ours and let the season grade it. Every match that feeds this table is called at /predictions and graded in public at /model-record. Full write-up: /methodology. Free to cite with a link (CC BY 4.0). Last refreshed 21 August 2026.
Will this table hold up? We grade it in public.
Get one email when the model's called right — or wrong — plus the captain picks that move the table each gameweek. Free, unsubscribe any time.
Want your picks & team saved? Create a free account →