We already played
all 10,000 seasons — here's who lifts it.
380 fixtures. 10,000 full seasons. Every kick priced by the engine that went 82.9% at the World Cup — with this summer's transfers, new managers and European campaigns baked into the numbers. Think it's wrong? Beat the model, match by match.
All 20, position by position
BAR = 5%–95% POINTS RANGE| # | Club | xPts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Relegated | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ArsenalUCL | 84.3 | 70–98 | 56.1% | 95.3% | — | |
| 2 | Manchester CityUCL | 76.6 | 60–92 | 20.4% | 79.2% | — | |
| 3 | LiverpoolUCL | 73.1 | 56–89 | 11.2% | 67.4% | — | |
| 4 | Manchester UnitedUCL | 68 | 51–84 | 5.3% | 46.7% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | Chelsea | 65.3 | 49–82 | 3.3% | 35.3% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | Aston VillaUCL | 62.5 | 45–79 | 1.8% | 25.9% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | Tottenham Hotspur | 60.3 | 43–77 | 1% | 19.2% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | Newcastle United | 56.7 | 40–73 | 0.5% | 11.4% | 1.3% | |
| 9 | BrightonUECL | 54.3 | 37–71 | 0.1% | 7.7% | 2.4% | |
| 10 | BournemouthUEL | 51.5 | 35–69 | 0.1% | 4.7% | 3.7% | |
| 11 | Brentford | 48.3 | 31–66 | 0.2% | 3.3% | 7.8% | |
| 12 | Everton | 46.8 | 31–63 | — | 1.5% | 9.1% | |
| 13 | Fulham | 43.3 | 28–61 | — | 0.8% | 16.1% | |
| 14 | Leeds United | 42.4 | 26–59 | — | 0.7% | 19.5% | |
| 15 | Crystal PalaceUEL | 41.2 | 26–58 | — | 0.4% | 21.5% | |
| 16 | SunderlandUEL | 41 | 26–57 | — | 0.4% | 21.7% | |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 36.3 | 22–52 | — | 0.1% | 39.1% | |
| 18 | Ipswich Town | 35 | 21–51 | — | — | 45.4% | |
| 19 | Coventry City | 34.9 | 20–51 | — | — | 45.5% | |
| 20 | Hull City | 30.5 | 17–45 | — | — | 65.8% |
What's in the numbers
Champions (85 pts), Arteta year five, same spine — the market's clear favourite.
Guardiola gone, Maresca in; double cup winners; Elliot Anderson £116m club record.
Slot out, Iraola in from Bournemouth after a 5th-place season; squad rebuild flagged.
Carrick made permanent after the 3rd-place surge from January.
Xabi Alonso arrives after a 10th-place mess; market prices a big rebound.
Emery continuity; 4th + Europa League winners; back in the UCL.
Survived on the final day, then De Zerbi + £200m spent including Tonali (£100m).
Howe stays but Tonali sold for £100m and Guimarães wanted — market cooled.
Hürzeler, 8th two years running; Conference League adds midweeks.
Lost Iraola to Liverpool; Marco Rose in; first-ever European campaign (UEL).
Andrews; equalled their best-ever PL finish (9th).
Moyes continuity, 13th.
Arbeloa in — untested at PL level; market prices genuine relegation risk (15%).
Farke, safe 14th in season one back.
Won the Conference League, then lost Glasner to Forest; Sage in — upheaval priced.
7th-place fairy-tale + Europa League load; Le Bris; market sees regression risk.
Glasner in but Elliot Anderson sold for £116m; 16th last season.
84-pt runners-up with the best defence of the trio, but McKenna left; Gary O'Neil in.
Championship winners with 95 pts and 97 goals; Lampard extended to 2029 — best-backed of the trio alongside Ipswich.
Promoted via the play-offs off the weakest underlying record (73 pts, +4 GD); 80% relegation-implied — the market's clearest call.
Team strengths start from three seasons of expected-goals data with time decay and Dixon–Coles low-score correction, then get calibrated so full-season simulations agree with July's bookmaker season markets — the cleanest available price on transfers, managerial changes, European load and promoted-club quality. Each simulated season draws correlated team-strength noise, so a club that breaks good or bad is good or bad all season — that is why the promoted clubs survive in a genuine share of simulations rather than being rubber-stamped down. One honest divergence: our title number for the favourite runs above the betting market's, because title books carry longshot bias; we publish ours and let the season grade it. Every match that feeds this table is called at /predictions and graded in public at /model-record. Full write-up: /methodology. Free to cite with a link (CC BY 4.0). Last refreshed 14 July 2026.