World Cup 2026
TOURNAMENT LIVE · DAY 40 OF 39The Final
Spain and Argentina. One match, one trophy, and a model that has to put a number on it before a ball is kicked — then live it or die by the result, in public.
The model favours Spain at 63% to reach the final.
WHO LIFTS IT · 10,000-RUN SIMULATION
FULL BOARD →Eight became four
The cleanest round of the tournament: no upsets, no shootouts, and the model's four favourites all advanced.
The favourites all held
For the first time in this tournament, a knockout round produced no upset at all. Every one of the four higher-rated sides went through — though England and Argentina both needed an extra thirty minutes to do it.
Morocco’s run ends at the last eight
The story of the tournament — a Round-of-32 win over the Netherlands on penalties, then Canada dismantled 3-0 — finally met a France side that did not blink. 2-0, and the most-watched underdog run of 2026 is over.
A semi-final nobody would have drawn
France v Spain is the top two ranked teams in the world meeting a round early. England v Argentina is the reigning champions against a side that has now won three knockout ties by a single goal. There is no easy half of this bracket.
The last eight are set — and Brazil are gone
Sixteen became eight in the tightest round yet: five one-goal games, a shootout, and the tournament's biggest name knocked out. Norway stunned Brazil, Argentina survived a scare, and Ronaldo's last World Cup ended in Dallas. Here's how the Round of 16 played out.
16 down, 16 to go — and a giant has fallen
The 48-team field is halved. Three ties went to penalties, five needed extra time, and one of the tournament favourites is already on a plane home. Here's how the Round of 32 played out.
The same model that called the World Cup, pointed at your FPL season
Captain picks, differentials, price-change alerts and set-piece takers for FPL 2026/27 — graded in public every gameweek, same engine, same receipts. The tournament ends 19 July; your season starts here.
12 groups, top 2 + best 8 third-place go through
Live standings update every gameweek through the group stage. Top 2 from each group advance to the Round of 32 automatically; the 8 best third-place finishers across all groups also advance.
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | South Korea | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 2 | Canada | 3 | +5 | 4 |
| 3 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | -8 | 1 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 3 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Morocco | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 3 | -8 | 1 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Japan | 3 | +4 | 5 |
| 3 | Sweden | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | -10 | 0 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 3 | +4 | 5 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | +2 | 5 |
| 3 | Iran | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 2 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Uruguay | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 3 | +8 | 9 |
| 2 | Norway | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal | 3 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Iraq | 3 | -11 | 0 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 | Austria | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Algeria | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Jordan | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Portugal | 3 | +5 | 5 |
| 3 | DR Congo | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 2 | Croatia | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Panama | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Live race to R32 from 3rd
- 1DR CongoGRP K · 3P · 4pts · +195%advancing
- 2SwedenGRP F · 3P · 4pts · 091%advancing
- 3EcuadorGRP E · 3P · 4pts · 087%advancing
- 4GhanaGRP L · 3P · 4pts · 083%advancing
- 5Bosnia & HerzegovinaGRP B · 3P · 4pts · -179%advancing
- 6AlgeriaGRP J · 3P · 4pts · -275%advancing
- 7ParaguayGRP D · 3P · 4pts · -271%advancing
- 8SenegalGRP I · 3P · 3pts · +267%advancing
- 9IranGRP G · 3P · 3pts · 060%out (est)
- 10South KoreaGRP A · 3P · 3pts · -148%out (est)
- 11ScotlandGRP C · 3P · 3pts · -336%out (est)
- 12UruguayGRP H · 3P · 2pts · -124%out (est)
Probability is a rank-based heuristic; tightens as more games are played.
Who will win the FIFA World Cup 2026?
World Cup 2026 winner — model picks per nation
Full board →Tap any nation for the live 10,000-run champion probability and full reasoning. Updated after every match.
Which confederation brings the most Premier League?
Bars grow from 0 on scroll. UEFA dominates the PL footprint (no surprise — the league is European). The race below the surface is between CAF, CONMEBOL and AFC for second.
Where the tournament travels
From SoFi Stadium in Inglewood to BMO Field in Toronto to Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. 11 US venues, 2 Canadian, 3 Mexican — bubble size scales with FIFA tournament capacity.
Where the tournament travels
From SoFi Stadium in Inglewood to BMO Field in Toronto to Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. 11 US venues, 2 Canadian, 3 Mexican — bubble size scales with FIFA tournament capacity.
R32 → Final · build your own
The real Round-of-32 ties plus the model's projected path to the final. Tap to pick winners and re-project the whole bracket.
Open the bracket →The story in numbers
Goals, upsets, the golden-boot race, all 12 final tables, and the model's graded report card — every call scored in public.
See the recap →All 159 PL players at the WC
Sorted by club, then by nation. The cleanest FPL × WC funnel — see which clubs have most of their squad on international duty.
View PL stars →A World Cup is a free pre-season
Every GW1 differential in FPL 2026/27 will play 3-7 matches in the WC before the season opens. Strongest pre-season signal available before prices lock in late July.
From 48 teams to one trophy
12 groups of 4. Top 2 + 8 best 3rd-place advance to R32.
R32 → R16 → QF → SF. Win-or-go-home.
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ.
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