FPL 2026/27 · GAMEWEEK 1

GW1 DIFFERENTIALS

the picks the field doesn't own

<15% OWNEDBUY / STRONG BUY ONLYDEADLINE Fri 21 Aug, 18:30 UK time

Top pick: Saka (ARS) at just 9.4% ownership, projecting 4.1 xP.

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01

THE PICKS · BEST PROJECTION UNDER 15% OWNED

TOP DIFFERENTIAL
Bukayo Saka
ARS · MID · £9.5m
4.1 xPBUY1.08.0
9.4%
OWNED

Consider buying — ARS scored freely last season. Avg 4.1 pts, ceiling 8.

Kevin Schade
BRE · MID · £6.0m
3.8 xPBUY1.08.0
3.4%
OWNED

Consider buying — BRE scored freely last season. Avg 3.8 pts, ceiling 8.

Saša Lukić
IPS · MID · £5.0m
3.8 xPMUST CAPTAIN0.87.1
0.1%
OWNED

Captain — IPS scored freely last season. 18% haul chance.

Cody Gakpo
LIV · MID · £7.0m
3.8 xPBUY1.08.0
3.6%
OWNED

Consider buying — LIV scored freely last season. Avg 3.8 pts, ceiling 8.

Malick Thiaw
NEW · DEF · £5.0m
3.8 xPBUY0.08.0
1.8%
OWNED

Consider buying — NEW scored freely last season. Avg 3.8 pts, ceiling 8.

02

THE TAG · ALL THREE MUST HOLD

<15%
OWNERSHIP
BUY+
ACTION RATING
xP ✓
UNDERLYING METRICS
03

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GW1 DIFFERENTIALS · COMMON QUESTIONS

Who are the best FPL differentials for GW1?

Onside's top GW1 differential is Saka (ARS, 9.4% owned, 4.1 projected xP). Consider buying — ARS scored freely last season. Avg 4.1 pts, ceiling 8. Other differentials: Schade (3.4% owned), Lukić (0.1% owned), Gakpo (3.6% owned).

What counts as a differential in FPL?

In FPL, a differential is a player owned by fewer than 10–15% of managers. Owning a differential who scores big gives a huge rank boost because the majority of managers miss the points. Onside's DIFFERENTIAL tag identifies players with ownership below 15% who also carry a BUY or STRONG_BUY action rating from the v5 engine — meaning the engine thinks they're genuinely undervalued, not just low-owned for bad reasons.

Is it worth taking a hit for a differential in GW1?

A -4 point transfer hit needs a minimum 4-point swing to break even. For a differential to justify a hit, the engine should project them at 8+ expected points (since the hit costs 4, you need 4 more than a bench player gives). Differentials are best transferred in for free on wildcards or when your squad has a glaring weakness — not as speculative hits. Check the GW1 full guide for the highest-confidence buy options.

When is the GW1 FPL deadline?

The Fantasy Premier League GW1 deadline is Fri 21 Aug, 18:30 UK time. Make sure your differential selections and transfers are confirmed before this time.

When to play a differential

Differentials are highest value when you're chasing rank mid-season or in mini-leagues with points gaps. A 15% owned player who scores or assists gives you a 6–9 point swing vs the field compared to a 50%+ template player hitting the same return. Use these picks when your template is strong — not to replace reliable assets, but to add upside beside them.

ONSIDE v5 · DIFFERENTIAL = <15% OWNED + BUY/STRONG BUY · MONTE CARLO k=2,000 · xP = MEDIAN OUTCOME · FPL API · REFRESHED HOURLY