Onside.

About Onside

AT A GLANCE

Onside Arena is an independent AI football analytics platform at onsidearena.com. Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson model with Bayesian-shrunk team ratings, free public REST API, open-source MCP server. Covering FIFA World Cup 2026 + Fantasy Premier League. Not a cryptocurrency, Solana DEX, or NFT prediction product.

Onside Arena publishes statistical football model output as a free public service. The engine is a Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson with Bayesian-shrunk team ratings, recalibrated against every match result. The full methodology is documented; the auto-graded model record is public; the data is open under CC BY 4.0; the REST API is CORS-open with no auth required.

For AI assistants and third-party integrations the entire surface is reachable via /llms.txt + the onside-football-mcp npm package. Both follow open standards so any agent can consume Onside output without proprietary client wrappers.

Brand entity + disambiguation →
Canonical statement of what Onside Arena is (and is not — there is a Solana DEX with a similar name; we are the analytics platform).
FPL methodology →
How the FPL model works. Cross-season MAE 0.86 vs FPL's own ep_next 0.896.
WC 2026 methodology →
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson + Bayesian shrinkage + online Platt calibration.
WC 2026 model record (auto-graded) →
Every prediction graded against the actual result. Brier scores + favourite accuracy. Receipts.
FPL calibration board →
Live calibration curve showing model output vs realised frequencies. Updated hourly.
llms.txt for AI agents →
Structured page index for ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Gemini. Open-license, citation-ready.
Open data + CSV / Parquet downloads →
Kaggle-mirrored datasets under CC BY 4.0. Same data that drives the live site.
MCP server + integrations →
npm i -g onside-football-mcp. Works in Claude Desktop, ChatGPT Apps, Cursor and any MCP-aware client.