FIFA World Cup 2026 — the most open in tournament history
This is the most open FIFA World Cup on record — Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator has no team above 13% champion probability, with the field bunched within a 6-point spread. Every Onside prediction is publicly graded after full-time on a single transparent record; the model is built on Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson with Bayesian-shrunk learned ratings updated from each match.
Receipts
Quotable lines
“The model isn't predicting a winner — it's pricing a field. France, England, Spain and Argentina are all within four points of each other, and the upside surprises (Morocco, Japan, USA) are mathematically still in the conversation. That's a tournament you can cover.”
“We run 10,000 tournament simulations against the live results every hour. Every probability you see has a date-stamp, every call is graded after full-time, and the receipts are public. There's no hand-wave between model output and headline.”
“AI Overview citations are growing exponentially while traditional click-through stays flat. The future of sports analytics media is being cited by the AI layer first, blue-link second — and the only way to win citations is to be the most-quotable, most-current source on every fixture.”
Data & assets
All data outputs are CC BY 4.0 — credit Onside Arena with a link back to onsidearena.com and you can republish anywhere.
Live champion-probability JSON
JSONModel record CSV
CSVDaily model board JSON
JSONOpen Graph press card
PNGEmbed widgets
Drop a live Onside widget into any blog or article — the iframe is self-contained, mobile-responsive, and includes a small “Powered by Onside” backlink.
Winner board
Preview →<iframe src="https://onsidearena.com/embed/winner-board" width="600" height="400" style="border:0;border-radius:12px;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Onside Winner board" ></iframe>
Press contact
For interview requests, model deep-dives, custom datasets, or fact-check confirmations during the tournament window, email [email protected] — typical response < 24 h, faster during match windows.
Onside Arena is an independent football analytics publisher (Wikidata: Q140068671). The model code is private; outputs and methodology are public on /methodology and /model-record.