FPL 2026/27 · GAMEWEEK 11

GW11 DIFFERENTIALS

the picks the field doesn't own

<15% OWNEDBUY / STRONG BUY ONLYDEADLINE Sat 21 Nov, 13:30 UK time

Top pick: Saka (ARS) at just 9.5% ownership, projecting 5.6 xP.

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01

THE PICKS · BEST PROJECTION UNDER 15% OWNED

TOP DIFFERENTIAL
Bukayo Saka
ARS · MID · £9.5m
5.6 xPMUST CAPTAIN1.011.5
9.5%
OWNED

Captain — ARS are scoring freely. 15% haul chance.

Oli McBurnie
HUL · FWD · £5.5m
2.8 xPBUY1.05.0
1.3%
OWNED

Consider buying — HUL are scoring freely. Avg 2.8 pts, ceiling 5.

Matheus Nunes
MCI · DEF · £6.0m
2.8 xPBUY0.06.0
1.5%
OWNED

Consider buying — MCI are scoring freely. Avg 2.8 pts, ceiling 6.

Gianluigi Donnarumma
MCI · GKP · £5.5m
2.7 xPBUY0.06.0
8.2%
OWNED

Consider buying — MCI are scoring freely. Avg 2.7 pts, ceiling 6.

Michael Kayode
BRE · DEF · £4.5m
2.6 xPBUY1.06.0
3.2%
OWNED

Consider buying — BRE are scoring freely. Avg 2.6 pts, ceiling 6.

02

THE TAG · ALL THREE MUST HOLD

<15%
OWNERSHIP
BUY+
ACTION RATING
xP ✓
UNDERLYING METRICS
03

PAIR WITH A RELIABLE ARMBAND

FULL CAPTAIN ANALYSIS →

GW11 DIFFERENTIALS · COMMON QUESTIONS

Who are the best FPL differentials for GW11?

Onside's top GW11 differential is Saka (ARS, 9.5% owned, 5.6 projected xP). Captain — ARS are scoring freely. 15% haul chance. Other differentials: McBurnie (1.3% owned), Matheus N. (1.5% owned), Donnarumma (8.2% owned).

What counts as a differential in FPL?

In FPL, a differential is a player owned by fewer than 10–15% of managers. Owning a differential who scores big gives a huge rank boost because the majority of managers miss the points. Onside's DIFFERENTIAL tag identifies players with ownership below 15% who also carry a BUY or STRONG_BUY action rating from the v5 engine — meaning the engine thinks they're genuinely undervalued, not just low-owned for bad reasons.

Is it worth taking a hit for a differential in GW11?

A -4 point transfer hit needs a minimum 4-point swing to break even. For a differential to justify a hit, the engine should project them at 8+ expected points (since the hit costs 4, you need 4 more than a bench player gives). Differentials are best transferred in for free on wildcards or when your squad has a glaring weakness — not as speculative hits. Check the GW11 full guide for the highest-confidence buy options.

When is the GW11 FPL deadline?

The Fantasy Premier League GW11 deadline is Sat 21 Nov, 13:30 UK time. Make sure your differential selections and transfers are confirmed before this time.

When to play a differential

Differentials are highest value when you're chasing rank mid-season or in mini-leagues with points gaps. A 15% owned player who scores or assists gives you a 6–9 point swing vs the field compared to a 50%+ template player hitting the same return. Use these picks when your template is strong — not to replace reliable assets, but to add upside beside them.

ONSIDE v5 · DIFFERENTIAL = <15% OWNED + BUY/STRONG BUY · MONTE CARLO k=2,000 · xP = MEDIAN OUTCOME · FPL API · REFRESHED HOURLY