Hull City FPL Picks 2026/27

Hull City beat Middlesbrough 1-0 at Wembley on 23 May 2026 to win the Championship play-off final, with Oli McBurnie scoring a 95th-minute winner. It is Hull's first Premier League appearance since 2016/17 — a nine-year absence ended via the play-off route after a 6th-placed Championship finish. The bookmakers' verdict on their 26/27 prospects is the clearest in the league: Hull are 2/7 favourites for relegation, the heaviest relegation favourite of any team. The implied probability is around 77.5%.

For Fantasy Premier League managers, this translates to a simple framing: captain-against Hull every gameweek the model rates them underdogs (most weeks), fade their defensive assets entirely, and watch only one specific Hull player as a potential budget pick.

Sergej Jakirović has been Hull manager since 11 June 2025 — he now has a full second pre-season at the club. He arrived after winning the Croatian double with Dinamo Zagreb in 23/24, and his Wembley play-off final win came in a textbook low-block: Middlesbrough had 70% possession but did not register a single shot on target. That defensive profile is rare among promoted sides and important for FPL captaincy-against fading.

The core question for 26/27 is whether the Croatian-trained low-block translates against Premier League attacks. The previous PL teams managed by similar tacticians (Sean Dyche's Burnley as the closest comparable) survived by maximising set-piece returns and minimising xG conceded. Hull's wage bill is around half of the average PL relegated club's; the defensive identity is what survival depends on.

Oli McBurnie scored 17 Championship goals in 25/26 plus the 95th-minute play-off final winner — he is THE Hull narrative for 26/27. He is the nailed penalty taker, though he has shared duties with Joe Gelhardt by mutual arrangement (Gelhardt scored a sublime direct free-kick at Wrexham in 25/26 and takes some indirect set-pieces).

At a projected £5.5m, McBurnie is the cheapest "nailed-penalty starting striker" in FPL 26/27. The case for owning him: 10-12 PL goal floor + penalty involvement + fresh-hero narrative + Hull's tendency to play more direct than possession-based, which means McBurnie's chances will come from second balls and counter-attacks rather than carved openings. The case against: Hull's relegation odds mean fixtures get harder week-on-week from GW6 onward. Verdict: pickable as your 4th or 5th forward at £5.5m if pre-season confirms he plays every minute; not a captaincy option.

Jacob Greaves has completed his medical at Ipswich Town and is the confirmed departure from the 25/26 Hull squad. Greaves was Hull's standout young centre-back and the most credible PL-level defender in the squad. His exit to a fellow promoted side weakens Hull's already-thin back-line and is the single biggest FPL-relevant fact about the Hull 26/27 outlook: their defence is materially worse than their promotion form suggests.

Other reported moves: Steven Alzate (free from Brighton) and Yacine Titraoui (Charleroi) are linked but not confirmed. The squad reshape direction is "promotion squad mostly intact + minor adds" — the lowest-value reshape of any of the three promoted clubs. Avoid Hull defenders. Avoid Hull goalkeeper at any price.

Captain-against Hull every gameweek you can; own only McBurnie at sub-£6m as a 4th/5th forward if his minutes confirm; avoid every other Hull asset until the model proves the defensive identity translates. By GW10 Hull will either be the best long-shot relegation-survival story of the season (Burnley 2022/23 template) or in 19th place with the bookmakers proven right. There is unlikely to be a middle outcome.

For mini-league strategy: 0-2 Hull assets is the right range — McBurnie if you want exposure, nothing if you don't. Captaining anyone other than the model's top weekly pick against Hull is a clear rank-leaking decision in any week the fixture says home vs Hull.