Hull City FPL Picks 2026/27

Hull City beat Middlesbrough 1-0 at Wembley on 23 May 2026 to win the Championship play-off final, with Oli McBurnie scoring a 95th-minute winner. It is Hull's first Premier League appearance since 2016/17 — a nine-year absence ended via the play-off route after a 6th-placed Championship finish. The bookmakers' verdict on their 26/27 prospects is the clearest in the league: Hull are 2/7 favourites for relegation, the heaviest relegation favourite of any team. The implied probability is around 77.5%.

For Fantasy Premier League managers, this translates to a simple framing: captain-against Hull every gameweek the model rates them underdogs (most weeks), fade their defensive assets entirely, and watch only one specific Hull player as a potential budget pick.

Sergej Jakirović has been Hull manager since 11 June 2025 — he now has a full second pre-season at the club. He arrived after winning the Croatian double with Dinamo Zagreb in 23/24, and his Wembley play-off final win came in a textbook low-block: Middlesbrough had 70% possession but did not register a single shot on target. That defensive profile is rare among promoted sides and important for FPL captaincy-against fading.

The core question for 26/27 is whether the Croatian-trained low-block translates against Premier League attacks. The previous PL teams managed by similar tacticians (Sean Dyche's Burnley as the closest comparable) survived by maximising set-piece returns and minimising xG conceded. Hull's wage bill is around half of the average PL relegated club's; the defensive identity is what survival depends on.

Oli McBurnie scored 17 Championship goals in 25/26 plus the 95th-minute play-off final winner — he is THE Hull narrative for 26/27. He is the nailed penalty taker. He had shared duties with Joe Gelhardt by mutual arrangement, but Gelhardt is out with an ankle injury until early September, so for the opening weeks McBurnie has the spot-kicks to himself — which is the case for him, not against.

At a projected £5.5m, McBurnie is the cheapest "nailed-penalty starting striker" in FPL 26/27. The case for owning him: 10-12 PL goal floor + penalty involvement + fresh-hero narrative + Hull's tendency to play more direct than possession-based, which means McBurnie's chances will come from second balls and counter-attacks rather than carved openings. The case against: Hull's relegation odds mean fixtures get harder week-on-week from GW6 onward. Verdict: pickable as your 4th or 5th forward at £5.5m if pre-season confirms he plays every minute; not a captaincy option.

Jacob Greaves has completed his medical at Ipswich Town and is the confirmed departure from the 25/26 Hull squad. Greaves was Hull's standout young centre-back and the most credible PL-level defender in the squad. His exit to a fellow promoted side weakens Hull's already-thin back-line and is the single biggest FPL-relevant fact about the Hull 26/27 outlook: their defence is materially worse than their promotion form suggests.

Other reported moves: Steven Alzate (free from Brighton) and Yacine Titraoui (Charleroi) are linked but not confirmed. The squad reshape direction is "promotion squad mostly intact + minor adds" — the lowest-value reshape of any of the three promoted clubs. Avoid Hull defenders. Avoid Hull goalkeeper at any price.

Captain-against Hull every gameweek you can; own only McBurnie at sub-£6m as a 4th/5th forward if his minutes confirm; avoid every other Hull asset until the model proves the defensive identity translates. By GW10 Hull will either be the best long-shot relegation-survival story of the season (Burnley 2022/23 template) or in 19th place with the bookmakers proven right. There is unlikely to be a middle outcome.

For mini-league strategy: 0-2 Hull assets is the right range — McBurnie if you want exposure, nothing if you don't. Captaining anyone other than the model's top weekly pick against Hull is a clear rank-leaking decision in any week the fixture says home vs Hull.