Who will win Hull City vs Aston Villa?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
HUL goals down, AVL goals across
| HUL ↓ | AVL 0 | AVL 1 | AVL 2 | AVL 3 | AVL 4 | AVL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUL 0 | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| HUL 1 | 5.5% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| HUL 2 | 4.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| HUL 3 | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| HUL 4 | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| HUL 5 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.0%.
Hull City v Aston Villa
Onside's model gives Hull City a 37% chance of beating Aston Villa in Gameweek 3, with 28% on the draw and 35% on an away win. The score prediction is Hull City 1–2 Aston Villa, from expected goals of 1.40 to 1.62. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).