QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Everton vs Manchester United?

The Onside model makes Everton the more likely winner of Everton vs Manchester United in Gameweek 3: Everton 46%, draw 28%, Manchester United 26%. The score pick is Everton 11 Manchester United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

EVE goals down, MUN goals across

EVEMUN 0MUN 1MUN 2MUN 3MUN 4MUN 5
EVE 08.0%7.4%6.0%2.7%0.9%0.3%
EVE 17.5%13.6%8.3%3.7%1.3%0.3%
EVE 26.1%8.3%5.7%2.6%0.9%0.2%
EVE 32.8%3.8%2.6%1.2%0.4%0.1%
EVE 41.0%1.3%0.9%0.4%0.1%0.0%
EVE 50.3%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.6%.

Sun 6 Sept · 14:00 UK · GW3 · model pl-dc-v2

Everton v Manchester United

Onside's model gives Everton a 46% chance of beating Manchester United in Gameweek 3, with 28% on the draw and 26% on an away win. The score prediction is Everton 11 Manchester United, from expected goals of 1.37 to 1.36. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Everton
46%
Draw
28%
Manchester United
26%
Model pick: 11 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sun 13:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.371.36
★ MODE
11
13.6%
21
8.3%
12
8.3%
00
8.0%
10
7.5%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
51%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
57%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Everton
Attack ranks #13 and defence #6 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Manchester United
Attack ranks #6, defence #7. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.371.36.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW3 predictions
Everton vs Manchester United Prediction — GW3 Score & Win Probability