Sun 6 Sept · 14:00 UK · GW3 · model pl-dc-v2 · pre-season
Everton v Manchester United
Everton
39%
Draw
27%
Manchester United
34%
Model pick: 2–1 · most probable 1–1
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →Your call
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
EXPECTED GOALS
1.43 — 1.31
★ MODE
1–1
13.5%
2–1
8.7%
1–2
7.9%
0–0
7.9%
1–0
7.8%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
52%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
57%
Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Why the model leans this way
Everton
Attack ranks #16 and defence #5 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.Manchester United
Attack ranks #6, defence #15. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.43–1.31.Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2 · pre-season). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Think you can beat this call?
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).