Every call, and every result
The model names a favourite before kickoff and the number is written down before the match is played. This is what happened next — wins, misses and all.
How accurate are Onside's Premier League predictions?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
The record
Nothing has been graded yet — no Premier League match has finished this season.
The Gameweek 1 predictions are already committed and timestamped before kickoff. This table fills itself in as results land; no number here is ever entered by hand.
Percentages are the model’s own pre-match numbers, read from the committed receipt — not recomputed. Draws and no-calls are excluded from the hit rate.
How this is graded
Written down first
Each prediction is committed to a public git repository before kickoff. The commit timestamp is the proof — not our word for it.
Never revised
A stored prediction is never overwritten, even when the model later changes its mind, and especially after the match has been played.
Result only
Favourite wins is a hit, favourite loses is a miss. Draws are their own bucket, and a match where the model made a draw most likely is a no-call, not a wrong answer.
Brier too
Because the full three-way split is stored pre-match, the record can also be scored on calibration, not just on being right. 0.667 is what guessing gets you.
Common questions
How accurate are Onside's Premier League predictions?▾
No Premier League match has been graded yet for 2026/27. Predictions for Gameweek 1 are already committed to a public git repository, timestamped before kickoff, and results will be graded against them as matches finish. Nothing is recomputed after the fact.
How is a prediction graded?▾
On the result only. The model names a favourite before kickoff; if that team wins it is a hit, if they lose it is a miss. Draws are reported separately rather than counted as losses, and a match where the model made a draw its most likely outcome is recorded as a no-call. The hit rate is hits divided by matches that produced a winner.
Why is the scoreline not graded?▾
Because it would not measure anything useful yet. Before a ball is kicked every team sits on the same prior, so the most likely exact scoreline collapses to the same low-scoring draw for almost every fixture. Grading that would say more about the cold start than the model. The win, draw or loss call is the honest claim, and it is the one graded here.
Could the numbers be changed after the match?▾
No. Each prediction is written to src/data/prediction-receipts.json before kickoff and committed to a public repository, so the commit timestamp is independent proof it existed beforehand. The record here reads that file. It never recomputes a probability, and a stored prediction is never overwritten.
See the next one before it happens
Every upcoming fixture has a published call with the same numbers, timestamped the same way. Judge it afterwards — that is the point.