Who will win Arsenal vs Chelsea?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
ARS goals down, CHE goals across
| ARS ↓ | CHE 0 | CHE 1 | CHE 2 | CHE 3 | CHE 4 | CHE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARS 0 | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| ARS 1 | 7.7% | 10.4% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| ARS 2 | 9.4% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| ARS 3 | 6.6% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| ARS 4 | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| ARS 5 | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.2%.
Arsenal v Chelsea
Onside's model gives Arsenal a 56% chance of beating Chelsea in Gameweek 3, with 24% on the draw and 20% on an away win. The score prediction is Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea, from expected goals of 2.13 to 1.06. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).
- Ipswich Town vs Liverpool prediction
- Newcastle vs Bournemouth prediction
- Brentford vs Sunderland prediction
- Brighton vs Leeds prediction
- Fulham vs Crystal Palace prediction
- Man City vs Coventry City prediction
- Nott'm Forest vs Spurs prediction
- Hull City vs Aston Villa prediction
- Everton vs Man Utd prediction