Who will win Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
AVL goals down, NFO goals across
| AVL ↓ | NFO 0 | NFO 1 | NFO 2 | NFO 3 | NFO 4 | NFO 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVL 0 | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| AVL 1 | 8.9% | 12.3% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| AVL 2 | 9.1% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| AVL 3 | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| AVL 4 | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| AVL 5 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.1%.
Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest
Onside's model gives Aston Villa a 44% chance of beating Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 4, with 28% on the draw and 28% on an away win. The score prediction is Aston Villa 2–1 Nottingham Forest, from expected goals of 1.79 to 1.07. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).