QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Leeds United vs Newcastle United?

The Onside model makes Leeds United the more likely winner of Leeds United vs Newcastle United in Gameweek 4: Leeds United 42%, draw 27%, Newcastle United 31%. The score pick is Leeds United 12 Newcastle United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

LEE goals down, NEW goals across

LEENEW 0NEW 1NEW 2NEW 3NEW 4NEW 5
LEE 06.8%6.6%5.8%2.8%1.0%0.3%
LEE 16.5%12.9%8.4%4.1%1.5%0.4%
LEE 25.7%8.3%6.1%3.0%1.1%0.3%
LEE 32.8%4.0%2.9%1.4%0.5%0.2%
LEE 41.0%1.5%1.1%0.5%0.2%0.1%
LEE 50.3%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.8%.

Mon 14 Sept · 20:00 UK · GW4 · model pl-dc-v2

Leeds United v Newcastle United

Onside's model gives Leeds United a 42% chance of beating Newcastle United in Gameweek 4, with 27% on the draw and 31% on an away win. The score prediction is Leeds United 12 Newcastle United, from expected goals of 1.45 to 1.46. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Leeds United
42%
Draw
27%
Newcastle United
31%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Mon 19:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.451.46
★ MODE
11
12.9%
12
8.4%
21
8.3%
00
6.8%
01
6.6%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
56%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
60%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Leeds United
Attack ranks #14 and defence #10 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Newcastle United
Attack ranks #7, defence #9. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.451.46.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW4 predictions
Leeds United vs Newcastle United Prediction — GW4 Score