Who will win Leeds United vs Newcastle United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
LEE goals down, NEW goals across
| LEE ↓ | NEW 0 | NEW 1 | NEW 2 | NEW 3 | NEW 4 | NEW 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEE 0 | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| LEE 1 | 6.5% | 12.9% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| LEE 2 | 5.7% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| LEE 3 | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| LEE 4 | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| LEE 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.8%.
Leeds United v Newcastle United
Onside's model gives Leeds United a 42% chance of beating Newcastle United in Gameweek 4, with 27% on the draw and 31% on an away win. The score prediction is Leeds United 1–2 Newcastle United, from expected goals of 1.45 to 1.46. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).
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