QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Bournemouth vs Brentford?

The Onside model makes Bournemouth the more likely winner of Bournemouth vs Brentford in Gameweek 4: Bournemouth 40%, draw 27%, Brentford 33%. The score pick is Bournemouth 21 Brentford, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BOU goals down, BRE goals across

BOUBRE 0BRE 1BRE 2BRE 3BRE 4BRE 5
BOU 06.3%5.7%4.9%2.3%0.8%0.2%
BOU 16.6%12.5%7.9%3.7%1.3%0.4%
BOU 26.3%8.9%6.2%2.9%1.0%0.3%
BOU 33.4%4.7%3.3%1.6%0.5%0.2%
BOU 41.3%1.9%1.3%0.6%0.2%0.1%
BOU 50.4%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.9%.

Sat 12 Sept · 15:00 UK · GW4 · model pl-dc-v2

Bournemouth v Brentford

Onside's model gives Bournemouth a 40% chance of beating Brentford in Gameweek 4, with 27% on the draw and 33% on an away win. The score prediction is Bournemouth 21 Brentford, from expected goals of 1.59 to 1.41. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Bournemouth
40%
Draw
27%
Brentford
33%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sat 14:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.591.41
★ MODE
11
12.5%
21
8.9%
12
7.9%
10
6.6%
00
6.3%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
58%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
61%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Bournemouth
Attack ranks #11 and defence #11 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Brentford
Attack ranks #8, defence #8. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.591.41.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW4 predictions
Bournemouth vs Brentford Prediction — GW4 Score & Win Probability