Who will win Sunderland vs Arsenal?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
SUN goals down, ARS goals across
| SUN ↓ | ARS 0 | ARS 1 | ARS 2 | ARS 3 | ARS 4 | ARS 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUN 0 | 7.5% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| SUN 1 | 3.9% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| SUN 2 | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| SUN 3 | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| SUN 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| SUN 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (0–2); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.5%.
Sunderland v Arsenal
Onside's model gives Sunderland a 24% chance of beating Arsenal in Gameweek 4, with 28% on the draw and 48% on an away win. The score prediction is Sunderland 0–1 Arsenal, from expected goals of 0.80 to 1.96. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).