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Who will win Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton?

The Onside model makes Tottenham Hotspur the more likely winner of Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton in Gameweek 4: Tottenham Hotspur 36%, draw 28%, Everton 36%. The score pick is Tottenham Hotspur 21 Everton, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

TOT goals down, EVE goals across

TOTEVE 0EVE 1EVE 2EVE 3EVE 4EVE 5
TOT 07.4%6.0%4.6%1.9%0.6%0.1%
TOT 18.1%13.1%7.2%3.0%0.9%0.2%
TOT 27.5%9.2%5.7%2.3%0.7%0.2%
TOT 33.9%4.8%3.0%1.2%0.4%0.1%
TOT 41.6%1.9%1.2%0.5%0.1%0.0%
TOT 50.5%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.7%.

Sat 12 Sept · 17:30 UK · GW4 · model pl-dc-v2

Tottenham Hotspur v Everton

Onside's model gives Tottenham Hotspur a 36% chance of beating Everton in Gameweek 4, with 28% on the draw and 36% on an away win. The score prediction is Tottenham Hotspur 21 Everton, from expected goals of 1.58 to 1.23. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Tottenham Hotspur
36%
Draw
28%
Everton
36%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sat 16:30
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.581.23
★ MODE
11
13.1%
21
9.2%
10
8.1%
20
7.5%
00
7.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
53%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
58%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack ranks #9 and defence #12 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Everton
Attack ranks #13, defence #6. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.581.23.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW4 predictions
Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton Prediction — GW4 Score & Win Probability