QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Manchester United vs Manchester City?

The Onside model makes Manchester City the more likely winner of Manchester United vs Manchester City in Gameweek 4: Manchester United 30%, draw 26%, Manchester City 44%. The score pick is Manchester United 12 Manchester City, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

MUN goals down, MCI goals across

MUNMCI 0MCI 1MCI 2MCI 3MCI 4MCI 5
MUN 05.9%6.3%6.3%3.5%1.5%0.5%
MUN 15.2%12.1%9.0%5.0%2.1%0.7%
MUN 24.6%7.7%6.4%3.5%1.5%0.5%
MUN 32.2%3.7%3.0%1.7%0.7%0.2%
MUN 40.8%1.3%1.1%0.6%0.2%0.1%
MUN 50.2%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.1%.

Sun 13 Sept · 16:30 UK · GW4 · model pl-dc-v2

Manchester United v Manchester City

Onside's model gives Manchester United a 30% chance of beating Manchester City in Gameweek 4, with 26% on the draw and 44% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester United 12 Manchester City, from expected goals of 1.42 to 1.66. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Manchester United
30%
Draw
26%
Manchester City
44%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sun 15:30
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.421.66
★ MODE
11
12.1%
12
9.0%
21
7.7%
22
6.4%
02
6.3%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
60%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
63%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Manchester United
Attack ranks #6 and defence #7 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Manchester City
Attack ranks #2, defence #2. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.421.66.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW4 predictions
Manchester United vs Manchester City Prediction — GW4 Score