QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Liverpool vs Fulham?

Liverpool 00 Fulham. Before kick-off the model gave Liverpool 56%, the draw 25% and Fulham 19%, with a score pick of 10. Every prediction is published before the match and never revised.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

LIV goals down, FUL goals across

LIVFUL 0FUL 1FUL 2FUL 3FUL 4FUL 5
LIV 06.7%3.7%2.2%0.7%0.1%0.0%
LIV 19.9%11.1%4.4%1.3%0.3%0.1%
LIV 211.1%9.9%4.4%1.3%0.3%0.1%
LIV 37.4%6.6%2.9%0.9%0.2%0.0%
LIV 43.7%3.3%1.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%
LIV 51.5%1.3%0.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (20); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.7%.

Full time · GW4 · model pl-dc-v2

Liverpool v Fulham00

Onside's model gives Liverpool a 56% chance of beating Fulham in Gameweek 4, with 25% on the draw and 19% on an away win. The score prediction is Liverpool 10 Fulham, from expected goals of 2.00 to 0.89. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Liverpool
56%
Draw
25%
Fulham
19%
Model pick: 10 · most probable 20
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
Was the model right?
Model pick · locked pre-kickoff
21
Final score
00
Graded
0 · missed

Recorded before kickoff, graded by the same 5/3/2/0 scoring as every player in the prediction league. Full season record: model receipts.

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.000.89
★ MODE
20
11.1%
11
11.1%
10
9.9%
21
9.9%
30
7.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
55%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
52%

Model updated from 39 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Liverpool
Attack ranks #5 and defence #3 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Fulham
Attack ranks #16, defence #17. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.000.89.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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