QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Coventry City vs Brighton?

The Onside model makes Brighton the more likely winner of Coventry City vs Brighton in Gameweek 4: Coventry City 26%, draw 26%, Brighton 48%. The score pick is Coventry City 12 Brighton, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

COV goals down, BHA goals across

COVBHA 0BHA 1BHA 2BHA 3BHA 4BHA 5
COV 06.4%8.1%8.6%5.2%2.4%0.9%
COV 14.6%12.0%9.8%6.0%2.7%1.0%
COV 23.3%6.1%5.6%3.4%1.6%0.6%
COV 31.3%2.3%2.1%1.3%0.6%0.2%
COV 40.4%0.7%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
COV 50.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.2%.

Sun 13 Sept · 14:00 UK · GW4 · model pl-dc-v2

Coventry City v Brighton

Onside's model gives Coventry City a 26% chance of beating Brighton in Gameweek 4, with 26% on the draw and 48% on an away win. The score prediction is Coventry City 12 Brighton, from expected goals of 1.14 to 1.83. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Coventry City
26%
Draw
26%
Brighton
48%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sun 13:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.141.83
★ MODE
11
12.0%
12
9.8%
02
8.6%
01
8.1%
00
6.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
57%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
58%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Coventry City
Attack ranks #20 and defence #19 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Brighton
Attack ranks #5, defence #4. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.141.83.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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