Who will win Brentford vs Chelsea?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
BRE goals down, CHE goals across
| BRE ↓ | CHE 0 | CHE 1 | CHE 2 | CHE 3 | CHE 4 | CHE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRE 0 | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| BRE 1 | 5.1% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| BRE 2 | 5.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| BRE 3 | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| BRE 4 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| BRE 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.2%.
Brentford v Chelsea
Onside's model gives Brentford a 44% chance of beating Chelsea in Gameweek 5, with 25% on the draw and 31% on an away win. The score prediction is Brentford 1–2 Chelsea, from expected goals of 1.58 to 1.64. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).