Who will win Brighton vs Arsenal?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
BHA goals down, ARS goals across
| BHA ↓ | ARS 0 | ARS 1 | ARS 2 | ARS 3 | ARS 4 | ARS 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHA 0 | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| BHA 1 | 5.5% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| BHA 2 | 3.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| BHA 3 | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| BHA 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| BHA 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.8%.
Brighton v Arsenal
Onside's model gives Brighton a 33% chance of beating Arsenal in Gameweek 5, with 28% on the draw and 39% on an away win. The score prediction is Brighton 1–2 Arsenal, from expected goals of 1.15 to 1.67. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).
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