QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Fulham vs Manchester United?

The Onside model makes Manchester United the more likely winner of Fulham vs Manchester United in Gameweek 5: Fulham 36%, draw 25%, Manchester United 39%. The score pick is Fulham 12 Manchester United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

FUL goals down, MUN goals across

FULMUN 0MUN 1MUN 2MUN 3MUN 4MUN 5
FUL 05.1%6.0%6.8%4.2%2.0%0.7%
FUL 14.2%11.2%9.3%5.8%2.7%1.0%
FUL 23.7%6.9%6.5%4.0%1.9%0.7%
FUL 31.7%3.2%3.0%1.9%0.9%0.3%
FUL 40.6%1.1%1.0%0.6%0.3%0.1%
FUL 50.2%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.5%.

Sun 20 Sept · 16:30 UK · GW5 · model pl-dc-v2

Fulham v Manchester United

Onside's model gives Fulham a 36% chance of beating Manchester United in Gameweek 5, with 25% on the draw and 39% on an away win. The score prediction is Fulham 12 Manchester United, from expected goals of 1.38 to 1.87. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Fulham
36%
Draw
25%
Manchester United
39%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
Your call
AI calls
1–2
Your call
·
·
locks Sun 15:30
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.381.87
★ MODE
11
11.2%
12
9.3%
21
6.9%
02
6.8%
22
6.5%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
63%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
65%

Model updated from 30 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Fulham
Attack ranks #14 and defence #17 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Manchester United
Attack ranks #5, defence #15. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.381.87.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW5 predictions
Fulham vs Manchester United Prediction — GW5 Score & Win Probability