QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Fulham vs Manchester United?

The Onside model makes Fulham the more likely winner of Fulham vs Manchester United in Gameweek 5: Fulham 42%, draw 26%, Manchester United 32%. The score pick is Fulham 12 Manchester United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

FUL goals down, MUN goals across

FULMUN 0MUN 1MUN 2MUN 3MUN 4MUN 5
FUL 06.2%6.6%6.4%3.5%1.4%0.5%
FUL 15.5%12.4%9.0%4.8%2.0%0.6%
FUL 24.8%7.7%6.3%3.4%1.4%0.4%
FUL 32.2%3.6%2.9%1.6%0.6%0.2%
FUL 40.8%1.3%1.0%0.6%0.2%0.1%
FUL 50.2%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.0%.

Sun 20 Sept · 16:30 UK · GW5 · model pl-dc-v2

Fulham v Manchester United

Onside's model gives Fulham a 42% chance of beating Manchester United in Gameweek 5, with 26% on the draw and 32% on an away win. The score prediction is Fulham 12 Manchester United, from expected goals of 1.40 to 1.62. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Fulham
42%
Draw
26%
Manchester United
32%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sun 15:30
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.401.62
★ MODE
11
12.4%
12
9.0%
21
7.7%
01
6.6%
02
6.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
58%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
62%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Fulham
Attack ranks #12 and defence #17 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Manchester United
Attack ranks #6, defence #7. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.401.62.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW5 predictions
Fulham vs Manchester United Prediction — GW5 Score & Win Probability