Who will win Arsenal vs Leeds United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
ARS goals down, LEE goals across
| ARS ↓ | LEE 0 | LEE 1 | LEE 2 | LEE 3 | LEE 4 | LEE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARS 0 | 5.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 1 | 10.0% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 2 | 12.8% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 3 | 9.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 4 | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ARS 5 | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 3.1%.
Arsenal v Leeds United
Onside's model gives Arsenal a 58% chance of beating Leeds United in Gameweek 6, with 25% on the draw and 17% on an away win. The score prediction is Arsenal 2–0 Leeds United, from expected goals of 2.32 to 0.73. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).
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