Who will win Aston Villa vs Brentford?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
AVL goals down, BRE goals across
| AVL ↓ | BRE 0 | BRE 1 | BRE 2 | BRE 3 | BRE 4 | BRE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVL 0 | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| AVL 1 | 6.2% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| AVL 2 | 6.1% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| AVL 3 | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| AVL 4 | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| AVL 5 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.0%.
Aston Villa v Brentford
Onside's model gives Aston Villa a 36% chance of beating Brentford in Gameweek 6, with 26% on the draw and 38% on an away win. The score prediction is Aston Villa 2–1 Brentford, from expected goals of 1.63 to 1.44. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).