QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Sunderland vs Brighton?

The Onside model makes Brighton the more likely winner of Sunderland vs Brighton in Gameweek 6: Sunderland 33%, draw 28%, Brighton 39%. The score pick is Sunderland 01 Brighton, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

SUN goals down, BHA goals across

SUNBHA 0BHA 1BHA 2BHA 3BHA 4BHA 5
SUN 08.1%9.0%8.1%4.2%1.6%0.5%
SUN 16.2%13.4%9.3%4.8%1.9%0.6%
SUN 24.4%6.9%5.3%2.8%1.1%0.3%
SUN 31.7%2.6%2.0%1.1%0.4%0.1%
SUN 40.5%0.8%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
SUN 50.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.6%.

Sat 10 Oct · 15:00 UK · GW6 · model pl-dc-v2

Sunderland v Brighton

Onside's model gives Sunderland a 33% chance of beating Brighton in Gameweek 6, with 28% on the draw and 39% on an away win. The score prediction is Sunderland 01 Brighton, from expected goals of 1.15 to 1.56. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Sunderland
33%
Draw
28%
Brighton
39%
Model pick: 01 · most probable 11
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.151.56
★ MODE
11
13.4%
12
9.3%
01
9.0%
00
8.1%
02
8.1%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
51%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
55%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Sunderland
Attack ranks #18 and defence #14 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Brighton
Attack ranks #5, defence #4. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.151.56.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW6 predictions
Sunderland vs Brighton Prediction — GW6 Score & Win Probability