Who will win Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
CHE goals down, BOU goals across
| CHE ↓ | BOU 0 | BOU 1 | BOU 2 | BOU 3 | BOU 4 | BOU 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHE 0 | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| CHE 1 | 6.4% | 10.2% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| CHE 2 | 8.0% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| CHE 3 | 5.7% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| CHE 4 | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| CHE 5 | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.3%.
Chelsea v Bournemouth
Onside's model gives Chelsea a 49% chance of beating Bournemouth in Gameweek 6, with 24% on the draw and 27% on an away win. The score prediction is Chelsea 2–1 Bournemouth, from expected goals of 2.13 to 1.21. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).