Sat 19 Sept · 15:00 UK · GW5 · model pl-dc-v2 · pre-season
Manchester City v Sunderland
Manchester City
56%
Draw
25%
Sunderland
19%
Model pick: 1–0 · most probable 1–1
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →Your call
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
EXPECTED GOALS
1.79 — 0.97
★ MODE
1–1
12.3%
2–0
10.1%
1–0
10.0%
2–1
9.8%
0–0
7.6%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
52%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
53%
Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Why the model leans this way
Manchester City
Attack ranks #1 and defence #2 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.Sunderland
Attack ranks #17, defence #3. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.79–0.97.Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2 · pre-season). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Think you can beat this call?
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).