Who will win Manchester City vs Coventry City?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
MCI goals down, COV goals across
| MCI ↓ | COV 0 | COV 1 | COV 2 | COV 3 | COV 4 | COV 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI 0 | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MCI 1 | 7.2% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| MCI 2 | 10.9% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| MCI 3 | 10.0% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| MCI 4 | 6.8% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| MCI 5 | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 5.8%.
Manchester City v Coventry City
Onside's model gives Manchester City a 69% chance of beating Coventry City in Gameweek 3, with 19% on the draw and 12% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester City 2–0 Coventry City, from expected goals of 2.74 to 0.80. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).