MODEL RATIONALE
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Australia sits 13 places above Paraguay in the FIFA ranking (#27 vs #40) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Australia to 46% and pushes Paraguay down to 28%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 54% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS
The four signals, side-by-side
FIFA RANKING
Paraguay
#40
Australia
#27
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Paraguay
0
Australia
0
HOST EDGE
Paraguay
—
Australia
—
CONFEDERATION
Paraguay
CONMEBOL
Australia
AFC
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