MODEL RATIONALE
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Qatar sits 10 places above Bosnia & Herzegovina in the FIFA ranking (#55 vs #65) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Qatar to 42% and pushes Bosnia & Herzegovina down to 31%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 58% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS
The four signals, side-by-side
FIFA RANKING
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#65
Qatar
#55
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Bosnia & Herzegovina
0
Qatar
0
HOST EDGE
Bosnia & Herzegovina
—
Qatar
—
CONFEDERATION
Bosnia & Herzegovina
UEFA
Qatar
AFC
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