MODEL RATIONALE
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Saudi Arabia sits 8 places above Cape Verde in the FIFA ranking (#61 vs #69) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Saudi Arabia to 44% and pushes Cape Verde down to 29%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 56% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS
The four signals, side-by-side
FIFA RANKING
Cape Verde
#69
Saudi Arabia
#61
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Cape Verde
0
Saudi Arabia
0
HOST EDGE
Cape Verde
—
Saudi Arabia
—
CONFEDERATION
Cape Verde
CAF
Saudi Arabia
AFC
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