#1Group B · MD3
🇧🇦Bosnia & HerzegovinavsQatar🇶🇦
31%
D 27%
42%
58% upset path
UPSET WATCHLIST · 2026 WORLD CUP
The matches the model flags as upset risks
The Onside model ranks every group-stage fixture by underdog combined probability (underdog win + draw). The 14 highest-upset matches are below — the favourite is still ahead but the betting market is likely to overprice them.
#2Group K · MD3
🇨🇩DR CongovsUzbekistan🇺🇿
32%
D 26%
42%
58% upset path
#3Group B · MD3
🇨🇭SwitzerlandvsCanada🇨🇦
31%
D 26%
43%
57% upset path
#4Group G · MD3
🇪🇬EgyptvsIran🇮🇷
31%
D 26%
43%
57% upset path
#5Group C · MD1
🇧🇷BrazilvsMorocco🇲🇦
30%
D 26%
44%
56% upset path
#6Group H · MD3
🇨🇻Cape VerdevsSaudi Arabia🇸🇦
29%
D 27%
44%
56% upset path
#7Group D · MD3
🇵🇾ParaguayvsAustralia🇦🇺
28%
D 26%
46%
54% upset path
#8Group L · MD1
🏴EnglandvsCroatia🇭🇷
27%
D 26%
47%
53% upset path
#9Group K · MD3
🇨🇴ColombiavsPortugal🇵🇹
28%
D 25%
47%
53% upset path
#10Group J · MD3
🇩🇿AlgeriavsAustria🇦🇹
28%
D 25%
47%
53% upset path
#11Group D · MD1
🇦🇺AustraliavsTürkiye🇹🇷
27%
D 25%
48%
52% upset path
#12Group A · MD1
🇰🇷South KoreavsCzechia🇨🇿
26%
D 25%
49%
51% upset path
#13Group F · MD1
🇸🇪SwedenvsTunisia🇹🇳
26%
D 25%
49%
51% upset path
#14Group D · MD3
🇹🇷TürkiyevsUnited States🇺🇸
25%
D 25%
50%
50% upset path
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