Who will win Türkiye vs United States?
Türkiye vs United StatesWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Türkiye 20%, draw 21%, and United States 59%. United States is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group D fixture on Friday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Türkiye vs United States World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives Türkiye 20%, draw 21%, and United States 59% — united states favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
Türkiye vs United States prediction score
Expected scoreline: 1–2 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Türkiye 1, United States 2). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
Türkiye vs United States head to head
Group D fixture at Inglewood, kickoff Fri 26 Jun, 02:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (TUR #22 vs USA #16), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
Türkiye vs United States line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Model favoured United States at — but Türkiye took the result. One of the upsets we flagged at pre-match.
Home soil tilts a tight match
Rankings are close (#16 vs #22), but United States plays on home soil — a meaningful nudge in international tournaments going back decades. United States land on 59%, Türkiye on 20%, with 21% on the draw.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- Altay BayındırMan Utd
- Chris RichardsCrystal Palace
- Antonee RobinsonFulham
- Tyler AdamsBournemouth
- Brenden AaronsonLeeds
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