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Who will win South Korea vs Czechia?

Onside's model gives South Korea a 48% win probability (30% draw, Czechia 22%). The model's projected scoreline is South Korea 11 Czechia. We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
Live model · updated moments ago · re-runs at kickoff67/82 calls right (82%) — see the record →
Analysis by the Onside model · ensemble ML, 0.86 MAEPublic track recordMethodologyUpdated 2026-07-19
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP A · MD1

South Korea vs CzechiaWin Probability & Model Prediction

Friday, 12 June 2026 · 02:00 UTC · Zapopan

Onside's AI model gives South Korea 48%, draw 30%, and Czechia 22%. South Korea is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group A fixture on Friday.

SOUTH KOREA WIN
48%
DRAW
30%
CZECHIA WIN
22%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.460.91
★ MODE
11
13.9%
10
12.2%
00
10.8%
20
10.0%
21
9.1%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
42%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
47%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

South Korea vs Czechia World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives South Korea 48%, draw 30%, and Czechia 22% — south korea favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

South Korea vs Czechia prediction score

Expected scoreline: 11 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (South Korea 1, Czechia 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

South Korea vs Czechia head to head

Group A fixture at Zapopan, kickoff Fri 12 Jun, 02:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (KOR #25 vs CZE #41), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

South Korea vs Czechia line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED
MODEL CORRECT
PRE-MATCH MODEL
KOR / D / CZE
FINAL SCORE
21

Model picked South Korea — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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FAV KOR · NARROW CONFIDENCEUPSET WATCH
MODEL RATIONALE

Ranking gap is the story

South Korea sit 16 places above Czechia in the FIFA ranking (#25 vs #41) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. South Korea comes out at 48%, Czechia at 22%, with the rest on the draw. Combined upset-or-draw chance keeps this one flagged as Upset Watch.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
South Korea
#25
Czechia
#41
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
South Korea
1
Czechia
2
HOME SOIL
South Korea
Czechia
REGION
South Korea
AFC
Czechia
UEFA
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

South Korea1 PL
  • Hwang Hee-chanWolves
Czechia2 PL
  • Tomáš SoučekWest Ham
  • Ladislav KrejčíWolves
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