UEFA vs CONMEBOL vs CAF · the model by confederation
How each FIFA confederation stacks up in the Onside model — aggregate strength score, qualified teams, and (once matches play) the model's favourite-correct hit rate. UEFA + CONMEBOL historically dominate; the upside on CAF / AFC sides is where the tournament's upsets live.
Which confederation does the model trust most?
Per-confederation aggregate model strength (avg rank-normalised) and how often the model favours one of its teams across the 72 group fixtures. Once matches play, the hit-rate column tracks the model's favourite-correct calls live.
Strength = avg of each team's rank-normalised score. "Favoured in" = number of group fixtures where the model picks a team from this confederation. Hit rate updates as results land.
Get the World Cup brief in your inbox — plus early FPL 2026/27 picks
Match-by-match predictions, captain picks for World Cup Fantasy, likely scorers, and the first FPL 2026/27 differentials to watch. Same engine that powers our Premier League tools, pointed at the world's biggest pre-season.
Weekly digest
Captain picks, transfer tips & differentials — every week.
One email per gameweek. Unsubscribe any time.
Tracking the World Cup? Use the same engine for FPL 2026/27.
v5 depth-2 GBT stacker · 51k+ OOS predictions · MAE 1.92. Captain picks, MILP squad optimiser, AI Coach, set-piece intel — the production Premier League tools.