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Who will win DR Congo vs Uzbekistan?

Onside's model gives DR Congo a 72% win probability (18% draw, Uzbekistan 10%). The model's projected scoreline is DR Congo 31 Uzbekistan. We publish every prediction before kickoff and grade it after full time. See every graded prediction. Full match breakdown below.
Live model · updated moments ago · re-runs at kickoff67/82 calls right (82%) — see the record →
Analysis by the Onside model · ensemble ML, 0.86 MAEPublic track recordMethodologyUpdated 2026-07-19
MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP K · MD3

DR Congo vs UzbekistanWin Probability & Model Prediction

Saturday, 27 June 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Atlanta

Onside's AI model gives DR Congo 72%, draw 18%, and Uzbekistan 10%. DR Congo is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group K fixture on Saturday.

DR CONGO WIN
72%
DRAW
18%
UZBEKISTAN WIN
10%
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.570.93
★ MODE
20
10.0%
21
9.3%
30
8.6%
11
8.1%
31
8.0%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
68%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
57%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

DR Congo vs Uzbekistan World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives DR Congo 72%, draw 18%, and Uzbekistan 10% — dr congo favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

DR Congo vs Uzbekistan prediction score

Expected scoreline: 31 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (DR Congo 3, Uzbekistan 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.

DR Congo vs Uzbekistan head to head

Group K fixture at Atlanta, kickoff Sat 27 Jun, 23:30 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (COD #46 vs UZB #50), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.

DR Congo vs Uzbekistan line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

MODEL SAID · HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED
MODEL CORRECT
PRE-MATCH MODEL
COD / D / UZB
FINAL SCORE
31

Model picked DR Congo — they took the result. Adds to the running accuracy score.

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FAV COD · STRONG CONFIDENCEUPSET WATCH
MODEL RATIONALE

Narrow edge to the favourite

DR Congo (#46) edge Uzbekistan (#50) on a combination of ranking and squad depth. 72% to Uzbekistan's 10%, with 18% on the draw — a strong-confidence call, not a foregone conclusion.

MATCH CONTEXT

How the teams compare

WORLD RANKING
DR Congo
#46
Uzbekistan
#50
PREMIER LEAGUE PRESENCE
DR Congo
2
Uzbekistan
1
HOME SOIL
DR Congo
Uzbekistan
REGION
DR Congo
CAF
Uzbekistan
AFC
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

DR Congo2 PL
  • Yoane WissaNewcastle
  • Aaron Wan-BissakaWest Ham
Uzbekistan1 PL
  • Abdukodir KhusanovMan City
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DR Congo full team page →Uzbekistan full team page →Compare radar →All predictions →
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