Champion probability — 10,000 runs of the World Cup
We ran the 2026 World Cup ten thousand times. For matches that have already been played, the actual result is locked in. Remaining fixtures and every knockout tie are sampled from our opponent-rating model. The board refreshes hourly — every result tilts it.
Who lifts the trophy?
Path through the tournament — top 24
| # | TEAM | R16 | QF | SF | FINAL | WIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 73% | 50% | 33% | 20.7% | 12.6% |
| 2 | Spain | 73% | 50% | 33% | 19.7% | 11.7% |
| 3 | England | 73% | 49% | 32% | 19.1% | 11.1% |
| 4 | Argentina | 71% | 47% | 28% | 16.6% | 9.3% |
| 5 | Portugal | 68% | 44% | 26% | 14.3% | 7.7% |
| 6 | Netherlands | 67% | 42% | 25% | 13.5% | 7.1% |
| 7 | Brazil | 67% | 42% | 24% | 13.1% | 6.8% |
| 8 | Belgium | 65% | 39% | 21% | 10.8% | 5.5% |
| 9 | Mexico | 63% | 36% | 20% | 9.5% | 4.5% |
| 10 | United States | 59% | 34% | 18% | 9.0% | 4.2% |
| 11 | Germany | 63% | 37% | 19% | 9.1% | 4.1% |
| 12 | Croatia | 61% | 33% | 16% | 7.7% | 3.2% |
| 13 | Morocco | 60% | 32% | 16% | 7.0% | 2.9% |
| 14 | Colombia | 56% | 30% | 14% | 5.9% | 2.3% |
| 15 | Uruguay | 53% | 25% | 10% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| 16 | Senegal | 49% | 23% | 10% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| 17 | Switzerland | 52% | 23% | 10% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| 18 | Türkiye | 39% | 16% | 5% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 19 | Japan | 40% | 16% | 5% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 20 | Ecuador | 45% | 18% | 6% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 21 | Canada | 44% | 17% | 6% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 22 | Austria | 40% | 15% | 5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 23 | Iran | 40% | 15% | 5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 24 | South Korea | 34% | 11% | 3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Method — updated every hour
FIFA rank, Premier League squad footprint, host advantage, confederation strength — the same opponent-rating model behind the predictions hub.
Every group fixture sampled 10,000 times. Played matches lock in the real result. Standings: points → goal difference → goals scored → random tiebreaker. Top-2 + 8 best 3rd-placed advance.
R32 → R16 → QF → SF → Final. Draws collapsed by model probability ratio. Pairings re-randomised per round (bracket-fair abstraction) until FIFA's exact seeding plan is final.
Pre-tournament: every match sampled from the model. Once matches start, completed results lock in and the board self-updates.
Common questions about the Monte Carlo board
How does the World Cup 2026 simulator work?›
We run the tournament from current state forward 10,000 times. Each run samples every fixture independently from our opponent-rating probability model. For matches already played, the actual result is locked in with certainty. Aggregating across runs gives each team a probability of reaching every round and winning the trophy.
Which team has the best chance of winning World Cup 2026?›
Currently France leads at 12.6%, then Spain (11.7%), England (11.1%), Argentina (9.3%), Portugal (7.7%), Netherlands (7.1%), Brazil (6.8%), and Belgium (5.5%). These probabilities refresh hourly and shift with every result. See the live top-24 board above.
Why 10,000 simulations specifically?›
10k is far past the convergence threshold for a 32-team bracket — per-team probabilities stabilise within a fraction of a percent. The bigger uncertainty is in the per-match model, not the sample size. We keep the 10k framing because "we ran the World Cup ten thousand times" is the line that earns links.
Does the simulator use actual FIFA bracket structure?›
Until FIFA publishes the exact 2026 R32 mapping (1A vs 3rd-place, 1C vs 3rd-place, etc.), we use a "fair re-pair per round" abstraction — surviving teams randomly matched at each KO round. This is statistically valid for aggregate champion probability but slightly off on specific path lengths. We will swap to the real bracket the moment FIFA fixes it.
When does the simulator update?›
Hourly via Next.js dynamic rendering. Each visit re-runs the 10,000 simulations against the latest results, so the board self-sharpens as games are played. By the SF round, only two matches are sampled — champion probabilities become very precise.
Get the World Cup brief in your inbox — plus early FPL 2026/27 picks
Match-by-match predictions, captain picks for World Cup Fantasy, likely scorers, and the first FPL 2026/27 differentials to watch. Same engine that powers our Premier League tools, pointed at the world's biggest pre-season.
Weekly digest
Captain picks, transfer tips & differentials — every week.
One email per gameweek. Unsubscribe any time.
Tracking the World Cup? Use the same engine for FPL 2026/27.
v5 depth-2 GBT stacker · 51k+ OOS predictions · MAE 1.92. Captain picks, MILP squad optimiser, AI Coach, set-piece intel — the production Premier League tools.