QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Bournemouth vs Arsenal?

The Onside model makes Arsenal the more likely winner of Bournemouth vs Arsenal in Gameweek 33: Bournemouth 28%, draw 28%, Arsenal 44%. The score pick is Bournemouth 12 Arsenal, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BOU goals down, ARS goals across

BOUARS 0ARS 1ARS 2ARS 3ARS 4ARS 5
BOU 06.7%9.0%9.7%6.1%2.9%1.1%
BOU 14.3%11.8%9.9%6.3%3.0%1.1%
BOU 22.8%5.4%5.1%3.2%1.5%0.6%
BOU 31.0%1.8%1.7%1.1%0.5%0.2%
BOU 40.3%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.1%
BOU 50.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.3%.

Sat 24 Apr · 15:00 UK · GW33 · model pl-dc-v2

Bournemouth v Arsenal

Onside's model gives Bournemouth a 28% chance of beating Arsenal in Gameweek 33, with 28% on the draw and 44% on an away win. The score prediction is Bournemouth 12 Arsenal, from expected goals of 1.03 to 1.89. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Bournemouth
28%
Draw
28%
Arsenal
44%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.031.89
★ MODE
11
11.8%
12
9.9%
02
9.7%
01
9.0%
00
6.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
56%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
56%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Bournemouth
Attack ranks #11 and defence #11 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Arsenal
Attack ranks #1, defence #1. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.031.89.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW33 predictions
Bournemouth vs Arsenal Prediction — GW33 Score & Win Probability