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Who will win Bournemouth vs Chelsea?

The Onside model makes Bournemouth the more likely winner of Bournemouth vs Chelsea in Gameweek 37: Bournemouth 41%, draw 25%, Chelsea 34%. The score pick is Bournemouth 12 Chelsea, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BOU goals down, CHE goals across

BOUCHE 0CHE 1CHE 2CHE 3CHE 4CHE 5
BOU 05.2%5.6%5.9%3.3%1.4%0.5%
BOU 14.8%11.5%8.8%5.0%2.2%0.7%
BOU 24.5%7.8%6.7%3.8%1.6%0.6%
BOU 32.3%3.9%3.3%1.9%0.8%0.3%
BOU 40.9%1.5%1.3%0.7%0.3%0.1%
BOU 50.3%0.4%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.3%.

Sun 23 May · 15:00 UK · GW37 · model pl-dc-v2

Bournemouth v Chelsea

Onside's model gives Bournemouth a 41% chance of beating Chelsea in Gameweek 37, with 25% on the draw and 34% on an away win. The score prediction is Bournemouth 12 Chelsea, from expected goals of 1.51 to 1.71. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Bournemouth
41%
Draw
25%
Chelsea
34%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.511.71
★ MODE
11
11.5%
12
8.8%
21
7.8%
22
6.7%
02
5.9%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
62%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
65%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Bournemouth
Attack ranks #11 and defence #11 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Chelsea
Attack ranks #4, defence #5. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.511.71.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW37 predictions
Bournemouth vs Chelsea Prediction — GW37 Score & Win Probability