Sat 5 Dec · 15:00 UK · GW14 · model pl-dc-v2 · pre-season
Brentford v Manchester City
Brentford
32%
Draw
26%
Manchester City
42%
Model pick: 1–2 · most probable 1–1
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →Your call
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
EXPECTED GOALS
1.38 — 1.61
★ MODE
1–1
12.5%
1–2
9.0%
2–1
7.7%
0–1
6.8%
0–2
6.5%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
57%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
61%
Pre-tournament prior model — posterior updates as the group stage plays. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Why the model leans this way
Brentford
Attack ranks #9 and defence #14 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.Manchester City
Attack ranks #1, defence #2. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.38–1.61.Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2 · pre-season). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Think you can beat this call?
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).