QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Liverpool vs Bournemouth?

The Onside model makes Liverpool the more likely winner of Liverpool vs Bournemouth in Gameweek 38: Liverpool 52%, draw 24%, Bournemouth 24%. The score pick is Liverpool 21 Bournemouth, and the single most probable scoreline is 21. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

LIV goals down, BOU goals across

LIVBOU 0BOU 1BOU 2BOU 3BOU 4BOU 5
LIV 04.4%2.8%2.3%0.9%0.3%0.1%
LIV 16.5%9.7%5.0%2.0%0.6%0.1%
LIV 28.4%9.7%5.6%2.2%0.6%0.1%
LIV 36.2%7.2%4.2%1.6%0.5%0.1%
LIV 43.5%4.0%2.3%0.9%0.3%0.1%
LIV 51.6%1.8%1.1%0.4%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.7%.

Sun 30 May · 16:00 UK · GW38 · model pl-dc-v2

Liverpool v Bournemouth

Onside's model gives Liverpool a 52% chance of beating Bournemouth in Gameweek 38, with 24% on the draw and 24% on an away win. The score prediction is Liverpool 21 Bournemouth, from expected goals of 2.24 to 1.16. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Liverpool
52%
Draw
24%
Bournemouth
24%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 21
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.241.16
★ MODE
11
9.7%
21
9.7%
20
8.4%
31
7.2%
10
6.5%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
66%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
62%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Liverpool
Attack ranks #3 and defence #3 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Bournemouth
Attack ranks #11, defence #11. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.241.16.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW38 predictions
Liverpool vs Bournemouth Prediction — GW38 Score & Win Probability