QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Manchester City vs Leeds United?

The Onside model makes Manchester City the more likely winner of Manchester City vs Leeds United in Gameweek 13: Manchester City 55%, draw 25%, Leeds United 20%. The score pick is Manchester City 21 Leeds United, and the single most probable scoreline is 20. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

MCI goals down, LEE goals across

MCILEE 0LEE 1LEE 2LEE 3LEE 4LEE 5
MCI 05.5%2.9%1.8%0.5%0.1%0.0%
MCI 18.7%9.9%4.0%1.2%0.3%0.0%
MCI 210.9%9.8%4.4%1.3%0.3%0.1%
MCI 38.0%7.3%3.3%1.0%0.2%0.0%
MCI 44.5%4.0%1.8%0.5%0.1%0.0%
MCI 52.0%1.8%0.8%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (20); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.6%.

Wed 2 Dec · 20:00 UK · GW13 · model pl-dc-v2

Manchester City v Leeds United

Onside's model gives Manchester City a 55% chance of beating Leeds United in Gameweek 13, with 25% on the draw and 20% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester City 21 Leeds United, from expected goals of 2.22 to 0.90. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Manchester City
55%
Draw
25%
Leeds United
20%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 20
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Wed 20:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.220.90
★ MODE
20
10.9%
11
9.9%
21
9.8%
10
8.7%
30
8.0%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
60%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
54%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Manchester City
Attack ranks #2 and defence #2 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Leeds United
Attack ranks #14, defence #10. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.220.90.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW13 predictions
Manchester City vs Leeds United Prediction — GW13 Score