QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester City?

The Onside model makes Manchester City the more likely winner of Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester City in Gameweek 25: Tottenham Hotspur 27%, draw 25%, Manchester City 48%. The score pick is Tottenham Hotspur 12 Manchester City, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

TOT goals down, MCI goals across

TOTMCI 0MCI 1MCI 2MCI 3MCI 4MCI 5
TOT 05.4%6.5%7.1%4.4%2.0%0.8%
TOT 14.3%11.4%9.5%5.8%2.7%1.0%
TOT 23.7%6.8%6.3%3.9%1.8%0.7%
TOT 31.6%3.0%2.8%1.7%0.8%0.3%
TOT 40.5%1.0%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.1%
TOT 50.1%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.4%.

Wed 10 Feb · 20:00 UK · GW25 · model pl-dc-v2

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City

Onside's model gives Tottenham Hotspur a 27% chance of beating Manchester City in Gameweek 25, with 25% on the draw and 48% on an away win. The score prediction is Tottenham Hotspur 12 Manchester City, from expected goals of 1.33 to 1.85. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Tottenham Hotspur
27%
Draw
25%
Manchester City
48%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Wed 20:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.331.85
★ MODE
11
11.4%
12
9.5%
02
7.1%
21
6.8%
01
6.5%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
62%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
63%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack ranks #9 and defence #12 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Manchester City
Attack ranks #2, defence #2. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.331.85.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW25 predictions
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester City Prediction — GW25 Score