SEMI-FINALAtlanta · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

England

ROUTE HERE

bt DR Congo 2-1

bt Mexico 3-2

bt Norway 2-1 (AET)

5/5OF THEIR GAMES CALLED

Argentina

ROUTE HERE

bt Cape Verde 3-2 (AET)

bt Egypt 3-2

bt Switzerland 3-1 (AET)

6/6OF THEIR GAMES CALLED

Win and you play in the World Cup final at MetLife Stadium on Sunday 19 July. Lose and you play the third-place play-off in Miami three days earlier.

QUICK ANSWER

England vs Argentina Semi-final prediction — World Cup 2026

Onside's model gives England a 63% chance of going through in the Semi-final between England and Argentina. England 63% · Argentina 37%. Most likely scoreline: England 1-0 Argentina. These are ADVANCEMENT probabilities — a knockout tie cannot end level, so the draw is resolved through extra time and penalties rather than left hanging. Match # 102 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta.

SEMI-FINAL · MATCH 102

MODEL · ENG 50%ATLANTA15 Jul UTC

England vs Argentina prediction

The Onside AI Monte Carlo simulator's verdict on the England vs Argentina Semi-final fixture. Probabilities refresh every 10 minutes.

ENGLAND

63%

ARGENTINA

37%

TO ADVANCE · INCLUDES EXTRA TIME & PENALTIES

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.01 — 1.40

★ MODE

1–1

14.2%

0–1

11.1%

0–0

10.5%

1–2

8.9%

0–2

8.8%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

43%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

49%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

ENGLAND · PL STARS

1.Dean HendersonCrystal Palace
2.Jordan PickfordEverton
3.James TraffordMan City

ARGENTINA · PL STARS

1.Emiliano MartínezAston Villa
2.Lisandro MartínezMan Utd
3.Cristian RomeroSpurs

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

England vs Argentina World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives England 50%, draw 22%, and Argentina 28% in the Semi-final — England favoured. Every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

England vs Argentina score prediction

The model leans England by a single goal; knockout fixtures compress, so expect a tight 1-0 or 2-1 rather than a blowout. Over-2.5-goals probability sits near 59%.

England vs Argentina Semi-final — when & where

Semi-final fixture at Atlanta, kickoff Wed 15 Jul, 19:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (ENG #4 vs ARG #3), confederation, and live form learned from this tournament's results.

England vs Argentina line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

FAQ · England vs Argentina

Who is the favourite to win England vs Argentina Semi-final?

England is the model's favourite to advance, at 63%. England 63% · Argentina 37%. These are advancement probabilities: a knockout tie cannot end level, so the draw is resolved through extra time (where the stronger side has the edge) and penalties (which are a coin flip).

When and where is England vs Argentina?

England face Argentina at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, kickoff Wednesday 15 July at 19:00 UTC.

What's the predicted score for England vs Argentina?

The model's most likely scoreline is England 1-0 Argentina (expected goals 1.0 v 1.4). Note this is the most likely DECISIVE scoreline: a knockout tie cannot end in a draw, so we do not quote one. Knockout football is tighter than the raw expected goals imply — expect a narrow margin, and a real chance of extra time.

Where can I see the model's accuracy?

Live receipts at /world-cup-2026/model-record. Every settled prediction is graded with a Brier-style scorecard so the model's accuracy is publicly auditable.

England →Argentina →Pick the score →Full bracket →