QUICK ANSWER

Spain vs Belgium Quarter-final prediction — World Cup 2026

Onside's AI model gives Spain at 50% to win the Quarter-final clash between Spain and Belgium. Spain 50% · draw 23% · Belgium 27%. Match # 98 at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood.

QUARTER-FINAL · MATCH 98

MODEL · ESP 50%INGLEWOOD10 Jul UTC

Spain vs Belgium prediction

The Onside AI Monte Carlo simulator's verdict on the Spain vs Belgium Quarter-final fixture. Probabilities refresh every 10 minutes.

SPAIN

50%

DRAW

23%

(then ET / pens)

BELGIUM

27%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.19 — 0.72

★ MODE

0–0

16.4%

1–0

16.2%

1–1

14.2%

2–0

10.5%

0–1

9.2%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

30%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

37%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

SPAIN · PL STARS

1.David RayaArsenal
2.Pedro PorroSpurs
3.Marc CucurellaChelsea

BELGIUM · PL STARS

1.Senne LammensMan Utd
2.Timothy CastagneFulham
3.Maxim De CuyperBrighton

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Spain vs Belgium World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Spain 50%, draw 23%, and Belgium 27% in the Quarter-final — Spain favoured. Every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Spain vs Belgium score prediction

The model leans Spain by a single goal; knockout fixtures compress, so expect a tight 1-0 or 2-1 rather than a blowout. Over-2.5-goals probability sits near 59%.

Spain vs Belgium Quarter-final — when & where

Quarter-final fixture at Inglewood, kickoff Fri 10 Jul, 19:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (ESP #2 vs BEL #9), confederation, and live form learned from this tournament's results.

Spain vs Belgium line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

FAQ · Spain vs Belgium

Who is the favourite to win Spain vs Belgium Quarter-final?

Spain is the model's favourite at 50%. Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator combines each side's team strength and the matchup context to derive the probability.

When and where is Spain vs Belgium?

Spain face Belgium at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, kickoff Friday 10 July at 19:00 UTC.

What's the predicted score for Spain vs Belgium?

The model's predicted scoreline is Spain 1-1 Belgium (expected goals 1.2 v 0.7). Goals-over-2.5 sits around 59%. Knockout matches are typically tighter than the model implies, so in a level tie expect low-scoring margins and extra-time risk.

Where can I see the model's accuracy?

Live receipts at /world-cup-2026/model-record. Every settled prediction is graded with a Brier-style scorecard so the model's accuracy is publicly auditable.

Spain →Belgium →Pick the score →Full bracket →